KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 20 · 14:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

40%

19%

16%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

HRESNO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.10u · HRES −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	64.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	3.8%	—	—	91.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	99.9%	—	—	96.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	69.5%	—	82.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	99.9%	94.1%	—	96.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	48.5%	100.0%	68.4%	—	93.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	97.8%	98.0%	90.0%	—	89.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	59.7%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	99.6%	53.3%	71.4%	—	83.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	94.6%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	53.5%	47.4%	88.2%	—	77.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	66.6%	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	71.0%	33.9%	62.7%	—	66.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	63.9%	11.8%	—	—	59.4%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	79.0%	27.1%	66.1%	—	51.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	72.6%	43.0%	—	—	54.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	78.1%	25.9%	68.8%	—	49.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	43.7%	40.6%	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	70.8%	40.3%	71.8%	27.3%	53.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	51.1%	50.0%	11.2%	—	46.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	43.0%	62.6%	86.6%	72.0%	39.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	41.6%	35.9%	92.2%	—	37.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	29.8%	19.1%	32.0%	53.7%	21.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	33.7%	20.9%	17.4%	—	26.9%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	55.4%	14.1%	14.9%	58.0%	22.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	54.2%	13.2%	26.5%	—	16.4%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	62.8%	13.8%	15.4%	42.8%	21.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.1%	0.6%	15.3%	—	6.5%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.5°F	2.6°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	77.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	66.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	66.0°F	6.0°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	19%	64.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	63.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗