WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Sep 17 · 02:12 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
62%
EPS
39%
WN2
28%
HRES
19%
AIFS
11%
Consensus
33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 36.2¢Risks 36.20u
VS
AIFSNO 63.8¢Risks 63.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.80u · AIFS −63.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.0% · 2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.6% · 2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00IFS HRES: 30.4% · 2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00IFS HRES: 30.4% · 2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00IFS HRES: 34.6% · 2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00IFS HRES: 34.6% · 2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00IFS HRES: 34.6% · 2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00IFS HRES: 34.6% · 2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00IFS HRES: 25.0% · 2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00IFS HRES: 25.0% · 2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00IFS HRES: 25.0% · 2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00IFS HRES: 25.0% · 2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00IFS HRES: 25.0% · 2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00IFS HRES: 19.1% · 2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00IFS HRES: 19.1% · 2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00IFS HRES: 19.1% · 2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00IFS HRES: 19.1% · 2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00IFS HRES: 19.1% · 2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00ICON: 42.4% · 2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00ICON: 42.4% · 2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00ICON: 61.6% · 2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:0009-16 14:5409-16 20:5609-17 02:12
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:0021.6%39.0%39.4%30.4%42.4%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:0021.6%39.0%39.4%30.4%42.4%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:0021.6%39.0%39.4%34.6%61.6%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:0021.6%39.0%29.6%34.6%61.6%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:0021.6%39.0%29.6%34.6%61.6%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:0021.6%39.0%29.6%34.6%61.6%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:0022.1%39.0%29.6%25.0%61.6%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:0022.1%39.0%29.6%25.0%61.6%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:0022.1%39.0%29.6%25.0%61.6%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:0022.1%39.0%29.6%25.0%61.6%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:0022.1%39.0%29.6%25.0%61.6%
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:0022.1%39.0%28.0%19.1%61.6%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:0022.1%39.0%28.0%19.1%61.6%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:0022.1%39.0%28.0%19.1%61.6%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:0010.8%39.0%28.0%19.1%61.6%
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:0010.8%39.0%28.0%19.1%61.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON62%78.5°F6.8°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
NWS forecast53%77.0°F5.8°F2026-09-16 14:00Pending
National Blend53%77.0°F6.6°F2026-09-16 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble39%74.9°F5.7°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 228%73.9°F4.5°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
IFS HRES19%70.7°F6.6°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single11%69.9°F5.3°F2026-09-16 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 16 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗