KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Sep 17 · 02:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

39%

28%

19%

11%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.2¢Risks 36.20u

AIFSNO 63.8¢Risks 63.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.80u · AIFS −63.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	71.5%	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	8.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	78.7%	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	85.5%	1.9%	—	49.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	20.4%	70.3%	45.6%	—	33.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	40.9%	1.2%	16.4%	—	10.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	10.8%	1.0%	36.7%	—	5.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.2%	2.6%	1.5%	—	1.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.0%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	0.2%	10.1%	—	0.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.3%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	2.9%	—	0.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	4.6%	—	0.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	78.5°F	6.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	77.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	74.9°F	5.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	73.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	70.7°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	69.9°F	5.3°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 16 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗