KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Sep 23 · 07:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

86%

86%

24%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.9¢Risks 61.85u

ICONNO 38.1¢Risks 38.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.15u · ICON −38.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	87.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	89.7%	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	99.4%	—	—	94.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	93.5%	—	—	98.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	86.8%	—	—	96.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	92.6%	98.9%	82.9%	—	90.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	90.4%	94.3%	89.7%	—	86.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	59.8%	40.9%	52.3%	—	82.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	26.8%	14.5%	54.8%	—	68.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	10.2%	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	82.7%	54.2%	81.6%	—	67.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	52.6%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	33.0%	71.6%	95.9%	—	68.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	58.9%	69.8%	—	—	65.8%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	33.9%	5.0%	68.6%	—	60.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	26.9%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	30.4%	3.4%	82.3%	—	67.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	31.7%	5.4%	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	19.0%	2.2%	61.2%	—	58.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	20.5%	7.2%	—	—	56.3%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	19.8%	9.4%	92.7%	7.0%	48.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	12.9%	13.5%	18.3%	—	54.5%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	22.4%	73.0%	93.9%	—	68.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	31.4%	32.5%	97.5%	—	76.6%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	74.4%	70.2%	95.7%	5.5%	81.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	68.7%	92.3%	98.8%	—	83.4%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	66.9%	94.7%	98.4%	27.3%	79.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	43.1%	96.3%	96.8%	—	80.9%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	48.5%	91.1%	98.9%	21.2%	89.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	56.0%	92.0%	99.6%	—	92.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	73.7%	99.0%	99.6%	57.9%	94.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	92.7%	98.9%	99.2%	—	93.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	66.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	65.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
ICON	24%	59.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗