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KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
97%
EPS
94%
ICON
79%
HRES
49%
AIFS
42%
Consensus
79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 69.5¢Risks 69.50u
VS
AIFSNO 30.5¢Risks 30.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.50u · AIFS −30.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-09-18T15:07:03+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:00AIFS Single: 42.0% · 2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:00AIFS Single: 42.0% · 2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-18T15:07:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-18T15:07:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.0% · 2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-18T15:07:03+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:00IFS HRES: 48.6% · 2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:00IFS HRES: 48.6% · 2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:00IFS HRES: 48.6% · 2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:00IFS HRES: 48.6% · 2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:00IFS HRES: 48.6% · 2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:00IFS HRES: 48.6% · 2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00ICON: 31.7% · 2026-09-18T15:07:03+00:00ICON: 31.7% · 2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:00ICON: 79.3% · 2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:0009-18 15:0709-18 21:0809-19 02:23
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-18T15:07:03+00:0065.7%93.5%97.0%56.1%31.7%
2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:0065.7%93.5%97.0%56.1%31.7%
2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:0065.7%93.5%97.0%56.1%79.3%
2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:0065.7%93.5%97.0%56.1%79.3%
2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:0065.7%93.5%97.0%56.1%79.3%
2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:0065.7%93.5%97.0%56.1%79.3%
2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:0036.6%93.5%97.0%56.1%79.3%
2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:0036.6%93.5%97.0%56.1%79.3%
2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:0036.6%93.5%97.0%56.1%79.3%
2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:0036.6%93.5%97.0%56.1%79.3%
2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:0036.6%93.5%97.0%48.6%79.3%
2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:0036.6%93.5%97.0%48.6%79.3%
2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:0036.6%93.5%97.0%48.6%79.3%
2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:0036.6%93.5%97.0%48.6%79.3%
2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:0042.0%93.5%97.0%48.6%79.3%
2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:0042.0%93.5%97.0%48.6%79.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 297%71.9°F4.5°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble94%68.5°F3.3°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending
ICON79%68.3°F5.9°F2026-09-18 12:00Pending
NWS forecast54%64.0°F5.1°F2026-09-18 14:00Pending
National Blend53%64.0°F6.5°F2026-09-18 06:00Pending
IFS HRES49%63.3°F5.8°F2026-09-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single42%62.5°F5.0°F2026-09-18 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗