KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

79%

49%

42%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.5¢Risks 69.50u

AIFSNO 30.5¢Risks 30.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.50u · AIFS −30.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	76.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	83.4%	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	71.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	98.6%	—	—	89.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	88.3%	—	—	96.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	78.2%	—	—	92.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	86.3%	97.3%	72.5%	—	82.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	82.5%	88.7%	81.6%	—	77.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	44.7%	27.0%	37.2%	—	71.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	15.4%	7.2%	39.0%	—	53.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	4.7%	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	70.0%	37.7%	68.5%	—	50.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	35.8%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	19.0%	55.2%	90.3%	—	51.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	41.1%	52.7%	—	—	48.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	19.0%	1.8%	50.9%	—	42.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	13.7%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	15.9%	1.0%	67.0%	—	48.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	16.4%	1.8%	—	—	42.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	8.2%	0.6%	40.8%	—	37.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	8.8%	2.3%	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	8.1%	3.1%	81.7%	2.1%	28.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	4.5%	4.8%	7.1%	—	32.6%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	9.0%	51.2%	83.2%	—	45.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	13.9%	14.5%	91.3%	—	54.8%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	51.2%	46.3%	86.3%	1.3%	61.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	43.6%	78.1%	94.7%	—	62.7%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	40.7%	82.7%	93.0%	10.1%	55.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	19.1%	86.1%	87.5%	—	56.9%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	22.2%	73.2%	94.1%	6.3%	70.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	27.2%	74.0%	96.8%	—	74.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	43.7%	93.9%	96.9%	27.6%	78.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	73.3%	92.7%	94.2%	—	75.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	71.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	68.5°F	3.3°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	79%	68.3°F	5.9°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	64.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	63.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	62.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗