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KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 18 · 14:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
92%
EPS
81%
AIFS
50%
HRES
42%
ICON
21%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 56.5¢Risks 56.55u
VS
ICONNO 43.5¢Risks 43.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.45u · ICON −43.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 26.8% · 2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:00AIFS Single: 26.8% · 2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00AIFS Single: 26.8% · 2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:00AIFS Single: 26.8% · 2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:00AIFS Single: 26.8% · 2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00AIFS Single: 26.8% · 2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00AIFS Single: 33.6% · 2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00AIFS Single: 33.6% · 2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:00AIFS Single: 33.6% · 2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:00AIFS Single: 33.6% · 2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00AIFS Single: 33.6% · 2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:00AIFS Single: 33.6% · 2026-09-18T11:20:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.6% · 2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00AIFS Single: 33.6% · 2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.0% · 2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-09-18T11:20:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T11:20:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.4% · 2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00IFS HRES: 74.7% · 2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:00IFS HRES: 74.7% · 2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00IFS HRES: 74.7% · 2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:00IFS HRES: 74.7% · 2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:00IFS HRES: 74.7% · 2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00IFS HRES: 74.7% · 2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-09-18T11:20:00+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00ICON: 52.9% · 2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:00ICON: 52.9% · 2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T11:20:00+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:00ICON: 20.7% · 2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:0009-18 03:0209-18 09:0409-18 14:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:0026.8%86.0%92.4%74.7%52.9%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:0026.8%86.0%92.4%74.7%52.9%
2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:0026.8%86.0%92.4%74.7%20.7%
2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:0026.8%86.0%92.4%74.7%20.7%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:0026.8%86.0%92.4%74.7%20.7%
2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:0026.8%86.0%92.4%74.7%20.7%
2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:0033.6%86.0%92.4%42.5%20.7%
2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:0033.6%86.0%92.4%42.5%20.7%
2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:0033.6%86.0%92.4%42.5%20.7%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:0033.6%86.0%92.4%42.5%20.7%
2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:0033.6%86.0%92.4%42.5%20.7%
2026-09-18T11:20:00+00:0033.6%81.1%92.4%42.5%20.7%
2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:0033.6%81.1%92.4%42.5%20.7%
2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:0033.6%81.1%92.4%42.5%20.7%
2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:0050.0%81.1%92.4%42.5%20.7%
2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:0050.0%81.1%92.4%42.5%20.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 292%71.9°F4.5°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble81%68.5°F3.4°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F5.1°F2026-09-18 02:00Pending
AIFS Single50%65.5°F5.0°F2026-09-18 06:00Pending
IFS HRES42%64.4°F5.8°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending
National Blend41%64.0°F6.5°F2026-09-18 06:00Pending
ICON21%60.7°F5.9°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗