KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 18 · 14:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

81%

50%

42%

21%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.5¢Risks 56.55u

ICONNO 43.5¢Risks 43.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.45u · ICON −43.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	—	—	—	84.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	66.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	75.1%	—	—	76.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	60.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	97.0%	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	80.7%	—	—	93.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	67.0%	—	—	86.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	77.0%	94.2%	59.7%	—	72.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	89.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	71.5%	80.1%	70.3%	—	65.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	30.3%	16.0%	23.9%	—	56.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	7.8%	3.1%	24.8%	—	37.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	1.8%	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	54.2%	23.2%	52.5%	—	34.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	21.4%	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	9.4%	37.9%	80.4%	—	34.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	24.9%	35.1%	—	—	31.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	9.0%	0.5%	33.0%	—	25.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	5.9%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	6.8%	0.2%	48.0%	—	29.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	7.0%	0.5%	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	2.8%	0.1%	22.7%	—	20.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	3.0%	0.6%	—	—	18.3%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	2.6%	0.8%	63.9%	0.5%	13.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	1.2%	1.3%	2.1%	—	15.4%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	2.7%	28.9%	64.8%	—	24.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	4.5%	4.8%	77.5%	—	31.4%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	27.6%	23.6%	68.0%	0.2%	36.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	20.9%	55.1%	83.4%	—	37.3%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	18.2%	60.6%	79.0%	2.6%	29.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	5.8%	65.0%	67.5%	—	30.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	6.8%	45.7%	79.8%	1.2%	42.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	8.6%	45.5%	86.4%	—	45.5%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	17.1%	77.4%	85.8%	8.3%	50.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	41.8%	73.3%	77.2%	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	71.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	68.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-18 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	64.4°F	5.8°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	64.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	21%	60.7°F	5.9°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗