KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≤ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Sep 23 · 07:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

14%

14%

<1%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.1¢Risks 38.15u

WN2NO 61.9¢Risks 61.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.85u · WN2 −61.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T07:20:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:00	30.4%	1.7%	1.0%	8.0%	55.0%
2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:00	30.4%	1.7%	1.0%	8.0%	55.0%
2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:00	30.4%	1.7%	1.0%	8.0%	55.0%
2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:00	30.4%	1.7%	1.0%	8.0%	55.0%
2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00	30.4%	1.7%	1.0%	8.0%	55.0%
2026-09-19T11:25:52+00:00	30.4%	1.8%	1.0%	8.0%	55.0%
2026-09-19T12:11:02+00:00	30.4%	1.8%	1.0%	8.0%	55.0%
2026-09-19T12:56:07+00:00	30.4%	1.8%	1.0%	8.0%	55.0%
2026-09-19T13:41:13+00:00	39.1%	1.8%	1.0%	8.0%	55.0%
2026-09-19T14:27:49+00:00	39.0%	1.8%	1.0%	8.0%	55.0%
2026-09-19T15:12:57+00:00	39.0%	1.3%	1.0%	8.0%	55.0%
2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:00	39.0%	1.3%	1.0%	8.0%	55.0%
2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:00	39.0%	1.3%	1.0%	8.0%	53.4%
2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:00	39.0%	1.3%	1.0%	8.0%	53.4%
2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:00	39.0%	1.3%	1.0%	8.0%	53.4%
2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:00	39.0%	1.3%	1.0%	8.0%	53.4%
2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:00	48.3%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	53.4%
2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:00	48.3%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	53.4%
2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:00	48.3%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	53.4%
2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:00	48.3%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	53.4%
2026-09-19T22:44:02+00:00	48.3%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	53.4%
2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:00	48.3%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	53.4%
2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:00	48.3%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	53.4%
2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:00	48.3%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	53.4%
2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:00	35.0%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	53.4%
2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00	35.0%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	53.4%
2026-09-20T03:14:43+00:00	35.0%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	53.4%
2026-09-20T04:00:02+00:00	35.0%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	53.4%
2026-09-20T04:45:07+00:00	35.0%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	66.0%
2026-09-20T05:30:13+00:00	35.0%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	66.0%
2026-09-20T06:15:18+00:00	35.0%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	66.0%
2026-09-20T07:00:26+00:00	35.0%	1.3%	1.0%	67.5%	66.0%
2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:00	32.5%	1.3%	1.0%	13.4%	66.0%
2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:00	32.5%	1.3%	1.0%	13.4%	66.0%
2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:00	32.5%	1.3%	1.0%	13.4%	66.0%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	32.5%	1.3%	1.0%	13.4%	66.0%
2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:00	32.5%	1.3%	1.0%	13.4%	66.0%
2026-09-20T11:31:31+00:00	32.5%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	66.0%
2026-09-20T12:16:51+00:00	32.5%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	66.0%
2026-09-20T13:01:56+00:00	32.5%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	66.0%
2026-09-20T13:47:01+00:00	36.7%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	66.0%
2026-09-20T14:33:32+00:00	37.5%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	66.0%
2026-09-20T15:18:42+00:00	37.5%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	66.0%
2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00	37.5%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	66.0%
2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00	37.5%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	77.2%
2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00	37.5%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	77.2%
2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00	37.5%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	77.2%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	37.5%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	77.2%
2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00	41.9%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	77.2%
2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00	41.9%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	77.2%
2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00	41.9%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	77.2%
2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00	41.9%	1.4%	1.0%	13.4%	77.2%
2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00	41.9%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	77.2%
2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00	41.9%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	77.2%
2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00	41.9%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	77.2%
2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00	41.9%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	77.2%
2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00	35.8%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	77.2%
2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00	35.8%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	77.2%
2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:00	35.8%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	77.2%
2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:00	35.8%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	77.2%
2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:00	35.8%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	84.6%
2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:00	35.8%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	84.6%
2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:00	35.8%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	84.6%
2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:00	35.8%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	84.6%
2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:00	40.6%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	84.6%
2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:00	40.6%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	84.6%
2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:00	40.6%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	84.6%
2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:00	40.6%	1.4%	1.0%	18.8%	84.6%
2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:00	40.6%	1.4%	1.0%	24.1%	84.6%
2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:00	40.6%	3.8%	1.0%	24.1%	84.6%
2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:00	40.6%	3.8%	1.0%	24.1%	84.6%
2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:00	40.6%	3.8%	1.0%	24.1%	84.6%
2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:00	30.0%	3.9%	1.0%	24.1%	84.6%
2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00	30.0%	3.9%	1.0%	24.1%	84.6%
2026-09-21T15:25:25+00:00	30.0%	11.0%	1.0%	24.1%	84.6%
2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00	30.0%	11.0%	1.0%	24.1%	84.6%
2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00	30.0%	11.0%	1.0%	24.1%	81.0%
2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00	30.0%	11.0%	1.0%	24.1%	81.0%
2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00	30.0%	11.0%	1.0%	24.1%	81.0%
2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00	30.0%	11.0%	1.0%	24.1%	81.0%
2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00	27.6%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	81.0%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00	27.6%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	81.0%
2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00	27.6%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	81.0%
2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00	27.6%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	81.0%
2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00	27.6%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	81.0%
2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00	27.6%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	81.0%
2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00	27.6%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	81.0%
2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00	27.6%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	81.0%
2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00	23.0%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	81.0%
2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00	23.0%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	81.0%
2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00	23.0%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	81.0%
2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00	23.0%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	81.0%
2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00	23.0%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	42.2%
2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00	23.0%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	42.2%
2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00	23.0%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	42.2%
2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00	23.0%	11.0%	1.0%	9.6%	42.2%
2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00	21.6%	11.0%	1.0%	8.3%	42.2%
2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00	21.6%	11.0%	1.0%	8.3%	42.2%
2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00	21.6%	11.0%	1.0%	8.3%	42.2%
2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00	21.6%	11.0%	1.0%	8.3%	42.2%
2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00	21.6%	1.3%	1.0%	8.3%	42.2%
2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00	21.6%	1.3%	1.0%	8.3%	42.2%
2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00	21.6%	1.3%	1.0%	8.3%	42.2%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	21.6%	1.3%	1.0%	8.3%	42.2%
2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00	15.2%	1.4%	1.1%	8.3%	42.2%
2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00	15.2%	1.4%	1.1%	8.3%	42.2%
2026-09-22T15:32:20+00:00	15.2%	3.3%	1.1%	8.3%	42.2%
2026-09-22T16:17:38+00:00	15.2%	3.3%	1.1%	8.3%	42.2%
2026-09-22T17:02:44+00:00	15.2%	3.3%	1.1%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-22T17:47:50+00:00	15.2%	3.3%	1.1%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-22T18:32:55+00:00	15.2%	3.3%	1.1%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-22T19:18:04+00:00	15.2%	3.3%	1.1%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-22T20:03:09+00:00	18.2%	3.3%	1.1%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-22T20:48:14+00:00	18.2%	3.3%	1.1%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-22T21:33:20+00:00	18.2%	3.3%	1.1%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-22T22:18:28+00:00	18.2%	3.3%	1.1%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-22T23:03:37+00:00	18.2%	3.3%	0.4%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-22T23:48:43+00:00	18.2%	3.3%	0.4%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-23T00:33:49+00:00	18.2%	3.3%	0.4%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-23T01:18:57+00:00	18.2%	3.3%	0.4%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-23T02:04:02+00:00	14.0%	3.3%	0.4%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-23T02:49:13+00:00	14.0%	3.3%	0.4%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-23T03:34:33+00:00	14.0%	3.3%	0.4%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-23T04:19:43+00:00	14.0%	3.3%	0.4%	8.3%	51.1%
2026-09-23T05:04:48+00:00	14.0%	3.3%	0.4%	13.7%	75.9%
2026-09-23T05:50:03+00:00	14.0%	3.3%	0.4%	13.7%	75.9%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	14.0%	3.3%	0.4%	13.7%	75.9%
2026-09-23T07:20:17+00:00	14.0%	3.3%	0.4%	13.7%	75.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	76%	59.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	65.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	66.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-LE61
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗