KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≤ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Sep 23 · 07:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

14%

14%

<1%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.1¢Risks 38.15u

WN2NO 61.9¢Risks 61.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.85u · WN2 −61.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	10.3%	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	6.5%	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	13.2%	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	7.4%	1.1%	17.1%	—	9.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	9.6%	5.7%	10.3%	—	13.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	40.2%	59.1%	47.7%	—	17.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	73.2%	85.5%	45.2%	—	31.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	89.8%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	17.3%	45.8%	18.4%	—	33.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	47.4%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	67.0%	28.4%	4.1%	—	31.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	41.1%	30.2%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	66.1%	95.0%	31.4%	—	39.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	73.2%	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	69.6%	96.6%	17.7%	—	33.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	68.3%	94.6%	—	—	38.2%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	81.0%	97.8%	38.8%	—	41.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	79.5%	92.8%	—	—	43.7%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	80.2%	90.6%	7.3%	93.0%	51.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	87.1%	86.5%	81.7%	—	45.5%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	77.6%	27.0%	6.1%	—	32.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	68.5%	67.5%	2.5%	—	23.4%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	25.6%	29.8%	4.3%	94.5%	18.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	31.4%	7.7%	1.2%	—	16.6%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	33.1%	5.3%	1.6%	72.7%	21.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	56.9%	3.7%	3.2%	—	19.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	51.4%	8.9%	1.1%	78.8%	10.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	44.0%	8.0%	0.4%	—	8.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	26.3%	1.0%	0.4%	42.1%	5.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	7.3%	1.1%	0.8%	—	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	76%	59.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	65.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	66.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-LE61
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗