KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Sep 18 · 14:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

47%

31%

27%

19%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.3¢Risks 44.30u

ICONNO 55.7¢Risks 55.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.70u · ICON −55.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:00	21.9%	67.7%	70.0%	51.3%	58.9%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	21.9%	67.7%	70.0%	51.3%	58.9%
2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:00	21.9%	67.7%	70.0%	51.3%	18.5%
2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:00	21.9%	67.7%	70.0%	51.3%	18.5%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	21.9%	67.7%	70.0%	51.3%	18.5%
2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00	21.9%	67.7%	70.0%	51.3%	18.5%
2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00	40.4%	67.7%	70.0%	26.8%	18.5%
2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:00	40.4%	67.7%	70.0%	26.8%	18.5%
2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:00	40.4%	67.7%	70.0%	26.8%	18.5%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	40.4%	67.7%	70.0%	26.8%	18.5%
2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:00	40.4%	67.7%	70.0%	26.8%	18.5%
2026-09-18T11:20:00+00:00	40.4%	46.6%	70.0%	26.8%	18.5%
2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00	40.4%	46.6%	70.0%	26.8%	18.5%
2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00	40.4%	46.6%	70.0%	26.8%	18.5%
2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:00	30.6%	46.6%	70.0%	26.8%	18.5%
2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00	30.6%	46.7%	70.0%	26.8%	18.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	71.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-18 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	68.2°F	3.6°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	65.8°F	5.3°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	64.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	62.4°F	6.8°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗