KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Sep 18 · 14:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

47%

31%

27%

19%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.3¢Risks 44.30u

ICONNO 55.7¢Risks 55.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.70u · ICON −55.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	—	—	—	75.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	78.3%	—	—	59.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	33.0%	49.3%	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	36.9%	20.9%	5.2%	—	33.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	4.4%	34.3%	51.5%	—	24.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	35.1%	7.3%	40.2%	—	22.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	39.7%	33.0%	26.1%	—	20.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	0.6%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	5.8%	30.8%	13.8%	—	14.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	12.3%	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	2.4%	0.0%	26.2%	—	14.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	7.1%	0.4%	—	—	12.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	16.6%	19.0%	16.0%	—	11.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	8.4%	13.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	15.9%	19.7%	22.5%	—	11.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	15.2%	29.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	12.3%	22.7%	22.7%	—	10.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	13.2%	19.0%	—	—	10.1%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	11.4%	18.3%	10.9%	4.5%	9.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	9.2%	8.3%	0.1%	—	7.9%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	6.5%	15.3%	19.1%	2.5%	6.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	9.2%	19.1%	17.5%	—	6.6%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	7.1%	15.1%	19.9%	1.6%	6.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	3.7%	18.2%	16.6%	—	6.4%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	5.3%	16.5%	17.3%	4.0%	5.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	11.8%	22.1%	16.4%	—	5.8%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	14.6%	21.2%	16.3%	3.7%	6.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	12.8%	14.4%	17.2%	—	6.5%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	12.5%	17.1%	12.5%	1.6%	5.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	20.3%	16.0%	15.0%	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	71.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-18 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	68.2°F	3.6°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	65.8°F	5.3°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	64.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	62.4°F	6.8°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗