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KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
12%
EPS
4%
WN2
2%
AIFS
2%
HRES
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 6.7¢Risks 3.33u
VS
HRESNO 93.3¢Risks 46.67u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.67u · HRES −46.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.8% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.5% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.3% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.8% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.1% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:0009-09 06:0009-17 00:0009-24 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:006.1%—————
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:000.1%————0.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:000.9%—————
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:000.9%————14.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:0017.5%————8.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:003.7%—————
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:0027.9%————7.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:0046.8%—————
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:0050.5%————12.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:0011.8%—————
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:0029.7%————10.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:0019.3%—————
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:008.1%————9.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:008.7%—————
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:0055.3%————10.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:009.3%————8.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:0041.9%—————
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:003.6%————6.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:000.5%————3.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:001.2%————7.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:000.4%—1.8%———
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:008.1%————10.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:005.5%—10.8%———
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:002.0%————4.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:001.3%—4.8%———
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:001.7%—9.0%——3.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:000.8%—0.2%———
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.4%1.3%——0.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:000.3%—3.9%———
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%—0.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.8%———
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%0.9%—0.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.0%0.3%—0.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.1%0.1%—0.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.6%———
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON12%70.0°F9.8°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
National Blend12%75.0°F5.4°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%73.6°F4.5°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%71.3°F5.1°F2026-09-16 18:00Pending
AIFS Single2%70.1°F5.5°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES1%67.7°F6.2°F2026-09-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗