KPIT / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Sep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

50%

28%

14%

14%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

WN2NO 58.2¢Risks 58.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.20u · WN2 −58.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T02:56:19+00:00	71.7%	6.0%	15.4%	46.1%	17.4%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	71.7%	6.0%	15.4%	46.1%	17.4%
2026-09-24T04:26:58+00:00	71.7%	6.0%	15.4%	46.1%	27.6%
2026-09-24T05:12:03+00:00	71.7%	6.0%	16.1%	46.1%	27.6%
2026-09-24T05:57:11+00:00	71.7%	6.0%	16.1%	46.1%	27.6%
2026-09-24T06:42:24+00:00	71.7%	6.0%	16.1%	46.1%	27.6%
2026-09-24T07:27:36+00:00	72.2%	6.0%	16.1%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-09-24T08:13:22+00:00	72.2%	6.0%	16.1%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	72.2%	6.0%	16.1%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-09-24T09:43:40+00:00	72.2%	6.0%	16.1%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-09-24T10:28:45+00:00	72.2%	6.0%	16.1%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-09-24T11:13:50+00:00	72.2%	14.3%	13.8%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	72.2%	14.3%	13.8%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-09-24T12:44:01+00:00	72.2%	14.3%	13.8%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-09-24T13:29:15+00:00	69.7%	14.3%	13.8%	50.0%	27.6%
2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00	69.8%	14.5%	13.8%	50.0%	27.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-24 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	70.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	67.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	66.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260925-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗