KPIT / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Sep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

50%

28%

14%

14%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

WN2NO 58.2¢Risks 58.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.20u · WN2 −58.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	27.0%	—	—	31.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	15.6%	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	1.3%	24.9%	—	—	23.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	50.7%	33.6%	7.2%	—	22.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	45.6%	30.4%	25.4%	—	25.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	12.2%	29.6%	23.9%	—	19.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	23.6%	28.8%	19.5%	—	22.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	0.1%	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	12.9%	20.7%	23.2%	—	20.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	19.0%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	40.5%	29.9%	17.8%	—	17.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	34.2%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	23.0%	23.7%	20.3%	—	19.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	12.2%	28.4%	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	14.2%	29.6%	18.3%	0.0%	21.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	18.3%	29.1%	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	19.0%	25.1%	21.9%	—	25.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	27.1%	24.5%	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	22.1%	25.5%	24.7%	—	22.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	14.1%	27.6%	0.0%	—	23.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	19.9%	43.0%	31.0%	8.5%	27.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	38.1%	40.5%	30.4%	—	29.3%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	40.1%	45.0%	28.7%	0.0%	30.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	37.3%	39.8%	16.6%	—	21.9%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	30.7%	35.6%	39.4%	24.0%	0.0%	22.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	41.7%	33.8%	26.5%	—	26.5%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	45.7%	35.8%	31.8%	13.8%	22.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	39.5%	41.0%	27.2%	—	15.3%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	33.1%	40.6%	23.8%	8.9%	12.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	37.0%	33.9%	30.9%	—	19.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-24 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	70.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	67.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	66.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260925-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗