KPIT / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Sep 26 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

60%

49%

27%

17%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.9¢Risks 52.95u

EPSNO 47.1¢Risks 47.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.05u · EPS −47.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T11:25:52+00:00	78.6%	50.0%	53.0%	49.4%	28.7%
2026-09-19T12:11:02+00:00	78.6%	50.0%	53.0%	49.4%	28.7%
2026-09-19T12:56:07+00:00	78.6%	50.0%	53.0%	49.4%	28.7%
2026-09-19T13:41:13+00:00	73.0%	50.0%	53.0%	49.4%	28.7%
2026-09-19T14:27:49+00:00	73.0%	50.0%	53.0%	49.4%	28.7%
2026-09-19T15:12:57+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	49.4%	28.7%
2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	49.4%	28.7%
2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	49.4%	56.5%
2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	49.4%	56.5%
2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	49.4%	56.5%
2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	49.4%	56.5%
2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	56.5%
2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	56.5%
2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	56.5%
2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	56.5%
2026-09-19T22:44:02+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	56.5%
2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	56.5%
2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	56.5%
2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:00	73.0%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	56.5%
2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:00	74.8%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	56.5%
2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00	74.8%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	56.5%
2026-09-20T03:14:43+00:00	74.8%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	56.5%
2026-09-20T04:00:02+00:00	74.8%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	56.5%
2026-09-20T04:45:07+00:00	74.8%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T05:30:13+00:00	74.8%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T06:15:18+00:00	74.8%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T07:00:26+00:00	74.8%	51.7%	53.0%	32.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:00	73.8%	51.7%	53.0%	44.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:00	73.8%	51.7%	53.0%	44.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:00	73.8%	51.7%	53.0%	44.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	73.8%	51.7%	53.0%	44.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:00	73.8%	51.7%	53.0%	44.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T11:31:31+00:00	73.8%	48.3%	53.0%	44.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T12:16:51+00:00	73.8%	48.3%	53.0%	44.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T13:01:56+00:00	73.8%	48.3%	53.0%	44.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T13:47:01+00:00	66.0%	48.3%	53.0%	44.0%	72.6%
2026-09-20T14:33:32+00:00	66.0%	48.3%	52.9%	44.0%	72.5%
2026-09-23T14:54:11+00:00	82.0%	20.9%	45.7%	64.7%	33.1%
2026-09-23T15:39:28+00:00	82.0%	20.8%	45.7%	64.7%	33.1%
2026-09-23T16:24:36+00:00	82.0%	20.8%	45.7%	64.7%	38.9%
2026-09-23T17:09:45+00:00	82.0%	20.8%	44.6%	64.7%	38.9%
2026-09-23T17:54:54+00:00	82.0%	20.8%	44.6%	64.7%	38.9%
2026-09-23T18:39:59+00:00	82.0%	20.8%	44.6%	64.7%	38.9%
2026-09-23T19:25:10+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	44.6%	54.4%	38.9%
2026-09-23T20:10:18+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	44.6%	54.4%	38.9%
2026-09-23T20:55:23+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	44.6%	54.4%	38.9%
2026-09-23T21:40:28+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	44.6%	54.4%	38.9%
2026-09-23T22:25:35+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	44.6%	54.4%	38.9%
2026-09-23T23:10:41+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	43.5%	54.4%	38.9%
2026-09-23T23:55:46+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	43.5%	54.4%	38.9%
2026-09-24T00:40:52+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	43.5%	54.4%	38.9%
2026-09-24T01:26:04+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	43.5%	54.4%	38.9%
2026-09-24T02:11:11+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	43.5%	54.4%	38.9%
2026-09-24T02:56:19+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	43.5%	54.4%	38.9%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	43.5%	54.4%	38.9%
2026-09-24T04:26:58+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	43.5%	54.4%	52.3%
2026-09-24T05:12:03+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	46.8%	54.4%	52.3%
2026-09-24T05:57:11+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	46.8%	54.4%	52.3%
2026-09-24T06:42:24+00:00	81.4%	20.8%	46.8%	54.4%	52.3%
2026-09-24T07:27:36+00:00	82.5%	20.8%	46.8%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T08:13:22+00:00	82.5%	20.8%	46.8%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	82.5%	20.8%	46.8%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T09:43:40+00:00	82.5%	20.8%	46.8%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T10:28:45+00:00	82.5%	20.8%	46.8%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T11:13:50+00:00	82.5%	28.4%	46.6%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	82.5%	28.4%	46.6%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T12:44:01+00:00	82.5%	28.4%	46.6%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T13:29:15+00:00	79.9%	28.4%	46.6%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00	79.9%	28.9%	46.6%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T15:01:48+00:00	79.9%	16.7%	46.6%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T15:47:14+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	46.6%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T16:32:26+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	46.6%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T17:17:32+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	42.1%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T18:02:38+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	42.1%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T18:47:42+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	42.1%	75.2%	52.3%
2026-09-24T19:32:51+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	42.1%	75.2%	44.4%
2026-09-24T20:17:59+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	42.1%	75.2%	44.4%
2026-09-24T21:03:05+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	42.1%	75.2%	44.4%
2026-09-24T21:48:10+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	42.1%	75.2%	44.4%
2026-09-24T22:33:16+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	42.1%	62.4%	44.4%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	34.6%	62.4%	44.4%
2026-09-25T00:03:29+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	34.6%	62.4%	44.4%
2026-09-25T00:48:38+00:00	79.9%	16.1%	34.6%	62.4%	44.4%
2026-09-25T01:33:49+00:00	86.4%	16.1%	34.6%	62.4%	44.4%
2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00	86.4%	16.1%	34.6%	62.4%	44.4%
2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00	89.1%	16.8%	40.7%	60.5%	30.5%
2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00	89.1%	16.8%	40.7%	60.5%	30.5%
2026-09-26T03:56:55+00:00	89.1%	16.8%	40.7%	60.5%	30.5%
2026-09-26T04:42:02+00:00	89.1%	16.8%	40.7%	60.5%	27.0%
2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00	89.1%	16.8%	48.8%	60.5%	27.0%
2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00	89.1%	16.8%	48.8%	60.5%	27.0%
2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:00	89.1%	16.8%	48.8%	60.5%	27.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	71.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	70.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	70.0°F	1.1°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	68.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	67.7°F	2.9°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260926-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 19 · 11:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗