KPIT / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Sep 26 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

60%

49%

27%

17%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.9¢Risks 52.95u

EPSNO 47.1¢Risks 47.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.05u · EPS −47.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	35.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	44.0%	—	—	30.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	43.7%	—	—	29.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	5.2%	41.3%	—	—	27.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	33.0%	24.6%	4.0%	—	27.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	56.6%	39.2%	33.0%	—	29.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	38.7%	42.4%	25.8%	—	23.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	8.1%	40.5%	39.0%	—	26.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	1.8%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	42.5%	41.7%	27.9%	—	30.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	20.1%	43.2%	—	—	29.6%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	24.1%	39.6%	34.6%	—	35.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	35.9%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	36.4%	34.7%	39.1%	—	44.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	35.2%	34.3%	—	—	42.5%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	30.4%	32.1%	50.0%	—	45.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	32.6%	38.2%	—	—	42.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	34.9%	36.9%	55.1%	—	47.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	51.1%	37.5%	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	56.5%	39.2%	53.3%	—	51.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	48.9%	36.7%	0.0%	—	37.8%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	48.8%	38.5%	40.8%	—	40.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	64.1%	42.8%	47.6%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	52.5%	48.8%	47.5%	0.0%	43.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	44.9%	48.7%	46.1%	—	38.5%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	43.3%	51.3%	51.3%	0.0%	40.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	45.8%	51.4%	54.2%	—	41.7%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	51.4%	48.5%	52.9%	25.6%	44.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	53.0%	38.1%	51.5%	—	36.6%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	66.8%	40.6%	48.4%	50.0%	23.8%	37.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	63.0%	43.4%	53.3%	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	71.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	70.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	70.0°F	1.1°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	68.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	67.7°F	2.9°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260926-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 19 · 11:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗