KPIT / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

71%

68%

66%

48%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.7¢Risks 63.75u

EPSNO 36.3¢Risks 36.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.25u · EPS −36.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-21T15:25:26+00:00	81.1%	71.4%	67.1%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00	81.1%	71.4%	67.1%	49.4%	72.0%
2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00	81.1%	71.4%	67.1%	49.4%	75.3%
2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00	81.1%	71.4%	67.1%	49.4%	75.3%
2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00	81.1%	71.4%	67.1%	49.4%	75.3%
2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00	81.1%	71.4%	67.1%	49.4%	75.3%
2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00	85.3%	71.4%	67.1%	65.2%	75.3%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00	85.3%	71.4%	67.1%	65.2%	75.3%
2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00	85.3%	71.4%	67.1%	65.2%	75.3%
2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00	85.3%	71.4%	67.1%	65.2%	75.3%
2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00	85.3%	71.4%	67.1%	65.2%	75.3%
2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00	85.3%	71.4%	67.0%	65.2%	75.3%
2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00	85.3%	71.4%	67.0%	65.2%	75.3%
2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00	85.3%	71.4%	67.0%	65.2%	75.3%
2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00	77.4%	71.4%	67.0%	65.2%	75.3%
2026-09-22T15:32:20+00:00	83.3%	69.1%	67.0%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-22T16:17:38+00:00	83.3%	69.1%	67.0%	68.4%	64.6%
2026-09-22T17:02:44+00:00	83.3%	69.1%	67.0%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-22T17:47:50+00:00	83.3%	69.1%	67.0%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-22T18:32:55+00:00	83.3%	69.1%	67.0%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-22T19:18:04+00:00	83.3%	69.1%	67.0%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-22T20:03:09+00:00	86.2%	69.1%	67.0%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-22T20:48:14+00:00	86.2%	69.1%	67.0%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-22T21:33:20+00:00	86.2%	69.1%	67.0%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-22T22:18:28+00:00	86.2%	69.1%	67.0%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-22T23:03:37+00:00	86.2%	69.1%	76.3%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-22T23:48:43+00:00	86.2%	69.1%	76.3%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-23T00:33:49+00:00	86.2%	69.1%	76.3%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-23T01:18:57+00:00	86.2%	69.1%	76.3%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-23T02:04:02+00:00	83.8%	69.1%	76.3%	68.4%	55.4%
2026-09-24T02:56:19+00:00	88.2%	41.7%	72.0%	58.6%	46.6%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	88.2%	41.7%	72.0%	58.6%	46.6%
2026-09-24T04:26:58+00:00	88.2%	41.7%	72.0%	58.6%	65.0%
2026-09-24T05:12:03+00:00	88.2%	41.7%	77.7%	58.6%	65.0%
2026-09-24T05:57:11+00:00	88.2%	41.7%	77.7%	58.6%	65.0%
2026-09-24T06:42:24+00:00	88.2%	41.7%	77.7%	58.6%	65.0%
2026-09-24T07:27:36+00:00	83.2%	41.7%	77.7%	71.1%	65.0%
2026-09-24T08:13:22+00:00	83.2%	41.7%	77.7%	71.1%	65.0%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	83.2%	41.7%	77.7%	71.1%	65.0%
2026-09-24T09:43:40+00:00	83.2%	41.7%	77.7%	71.1%	65.0%
2026-09-24T10:28:45+00:00	83.2%	41.7%	77.7%	71.1%	65.0%
2026-09-24T11:13:50+00:00	83.2%	48.2%	79.2%	71.1%	65.0%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	83.2%	48.2%	79.2%	71.1%	65.0%
2026-09-24T12:44:01+00:00	83.2%	48.2%	79.2%	71.1%	65.0%
2026-09-24T13:29:15+00:00	68.5%	48.2%	79.2%	71.1%	65.0%
2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00	68.5%	48.3%	79.2%	71.1%	65.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	71.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	70.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-24 06:00	Pending
ICON	66%	70.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	68.4°F	2.3°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260927-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 21 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗