KPIT / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

71%

68%

66%

48%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.7¢Risks 63.75u

EPSNO 36.3¢Risks 36.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.25u · EPS −36.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	1.6%	—	—	48.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	1.1%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	27.7%	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	72.0%	45.8%	4.9%	—	47.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	55.8%	67.7%	55.1%	—	52.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	61.3%	73.0%	61.3%	—	52.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	49.2%	64.8%	60.3%	—	47.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	3.1%	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	37.7%	63.9%	52.5%	—	46.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	44.9%	61.8%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	30.7%	54.4%	63.7%	—	50.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	16.6%	64.1%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	34.7%	50.9%	19.6%	—	44.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	68.2%	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	60.6%	57.7%	65.2%	—	56.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	56.0%	39.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	63.1%	22.7%	69.7%	—	52.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	64.5%	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	69.9%	67.9%	56.5%	—	48.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	24.9%	74.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	12.7%	77.6%	57.0%	—	38.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	13.9%	75.6%	53.6%	—	44.0%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	36.5%	79.2%	66.9%	0.5%	51.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	55.1%	67.5%	63.9%	—	48.7%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	55.4%	65.7%	64.4%	47.3%	48.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	80.9%	71.2%	65.0%	—	58.3%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	74.4%	75.5%	70.7%	55.8%	69.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	82.8%	80.8%	63.3%	—	67.5%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	85.8%	84.8%	73.7%	71.0%	65.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	88.5%	78.5%	74.6%	—	71.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	71.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	70.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-24 06:00	Pending
ICON	66%	70.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	68.4°F	2.3°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260927-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 21 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗