KPIT / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Sep 26 · 01:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

91%

85%

75%

57%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.2¢Risks 74.25u

EPSNO 25.8¢Risks 25.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.75u · EPS −25.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T01:41:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T03:04:08+00:00	93.0%	58.6%	88.8%	88.2%	88.4%
2026-09-25T03:49:44+00:00	93.0%	58.6%	88.8%	88.2%	88.4%
2026-09-25T04:34:48+00:00	93.0%	58.6%	88.8%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T05:19:56+00:00	93.0%	58.6%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T06:05:03+00:00	93.0%	58.6%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T06:50:09+00:00	93.0%	58.6%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T07:35:16+00:00	93.7%	58.6%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T08:20:23+00:00	93.7%	58.6%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T09:05:28+00:00	93.7%	58.6%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T09:50:33+00:00	93.7%	58.6%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T10:35:38+00:00	93.7%	58.6%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T11:20:45+00:00	93.7%	50.0%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T12:05:51+00:00	93.7%	50.0%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T12:50:56+00:00	93.7%	50.0%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T13:36:02+00:00	93.7%	50.0%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T14:23:04+00:00	93.7%	50.0%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T15:08:10+00:00	93.7%	56.6%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T15:53:16+00:00	93.7%	56.6%	92.0%	88.2%	78.9%
2026-09-25T16:38:21+00:00	93.7%	56.6%	92.0%	88.2%	75.0%
2026-09-25T17:23:29+00:00	93.7%	56.6%	91.5%	88.2%	75.0%
2026-09-25T18:08:40+00:00	93.7%	56.6%	91.5%	88.2%	75.0%
2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00	93.7%	56.6%	91.5%	88.2%	75.0%
2026-09-25T19:39:20+00:00	89.8%	56.6%	91.5%	85.4%	75.0%
2026-09-25T20:25:16+00:00	89.8%	56.6%	91.5%	85.4%	75.0%
2026-09-25T21:10:21+00:00	89.8%	56.6%	91.5%	85.4%	75.0%
2026-09-25T21:55:27+00:00	89.8%	56.6%	91.5%	85.4%	75.0%
2026-09-25T22:40:31+00:00	89.8%	56.6%	91.5%	85.4%	75.0%
2026-09-25T23:25:36+00:00	89.8%	56.6%	91.9%	85.4%	75.0%
2026-09-26T00:10:43+00:00	89.8%	56.6%	91.9%	85.4%	75.0%
2026-09-26T00:55:51+00:00	89.8%	56.6%	91.9%	85.4%	75.0%
2026-09-26T01:41:02+00:00	90.9%	56.6%	91.9%	85.4%	75.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	74.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	74.7°F	4.6°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	73.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	71.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	69.0°F	3.0°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 17:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260929-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗