KPIT / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Sep 26 · 01:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

91%

85%

75%

57%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.2¢Risks 74.25u

EPSNO 25.8¢Risks 25.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.75u · EPS −25.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	73.4%	—	—	64.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	10.4%	—	—	70.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	89.6%	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	15.5%	5.9%	—	—	72.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	82.0%	58.4%	80.1%	12.2%	—	71.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	84.4%	57.3%	83.0%	59.4%	—	75.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	44.7%	87.8%	21.6%	—	70.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	49.2%	83.2%	17.4%	—	74.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	10.2%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	84.3%	87.5%	54.2%	—	74.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	76.7%	53.4%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	70.9%	63.7%	41.3%	—	73.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	73.6%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	67.0%	82.8%	61.8%	—	77.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	70.8%	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	48.0%	82.9%	34.8%	—	74.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	73.5%	82.3%	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	68.8%	60.2%	74.1%	—	69.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	71.2%	87.9%	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	63.9%	83.1%	37.1%	—	77.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	79.4%	92.9%	1.0%	—	76.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	75.8%	92.0%	31.0%	—	72.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	89.8%	68.5%	91.8%	34.7%	—	77.5%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	75.4%	96.3%	38.9%	84.9%	83.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	90.8%	94.0%	61.5%	—	82.6%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	84.3%	84.3%	48.7%	90.5%	86.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	89.6%	88.2%	84.5%	—	95.3%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	87.8%	91.1%	80.9%	91.6%	95.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	88.8%	94.0%	71.5%	—	92.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	86.6%	96.6%	66.8%	94.8%	90.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	81.9%	97.2%	58.2%	—	87.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	74.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	74.7°F	4.6°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	73.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	71.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	69.0°F	3.0°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 17:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260929-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗