KPIT / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Sep 29 · 06:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

74%

58%

23%

19%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.4¢Risks 51.40u

ICONNO 48.6¢Risks 48.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.60u · ICON −48.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T06:37:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-23T02:49:13+00:00	82.9%	41.5%	60.6%	56.3%	55.3%
2026-09-23T03:34:33+00:00	82.9%	41.5%	60.6%	56.3%	55.3%
2026-09-23T04:19:43+00:00	82.9%	41.5%	60.6%	56.3%	55.3%
2026-09-23T05:04:48+00:00	82.9%	41.5%	60.6%	58.1%	51.2%
2026-09-23T05:50:03+00:00	82.9%	41.5%	60.6%	58.1%	51.2%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	82.9%	41.5%	60.6%	58.1%	51.2%
2026-09-23T07:20:17+00:00	82.9%	41.5%	60.6%	58.1%	51.2%
2026-09-23T08:05:27+00:00	84.0%	41.5%	60.6%	61.8%	51.2%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	84.0%	41.5%	60.6%	61.8%	51.2%
2026-09-23T09:36:15+00:00	84.0%	41.5%	60.6%	61.8%	51.2%
2026-09-23T10:21:19+00:00	84.0%	41.5%	60.6%	61.8%	51.2%
2026-09-23T11:06:25+00:00	84.0%	33.2%	56.2%	61.8%	51.2%
2026-09-23T11:51:38+00:00	84.0%	33.2%	56.2%	61.8%	51.2%
2026-09-23T12:36:42+00:00	84.0%	33.2%	56.2%	61.8%	51.2%
2026-09-23T13:21:48+00:00	78.0%	33.2%	56.2%	61.8%	51.2%
2026-09-23T14:09:03+00:00	77.9%	33.2%	56.1%	61.8%	50.6%
2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00	68.5%	10.6%	67.7%	41.2%	34.1%
2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00	68.5%	10.6%	67.7%	41.2%	34.1%
2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00	68.5%	10.6%	67.7%	41.2%	19.0%
2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:00	68.5%	10.6%	67.7%	41.2%	19.0%
2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00	68.5%	10.6%	67.7%	41.2%	19.0%
2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00	68.5%	10.6%	67.7%	41.2%	19.0%
2026-09-27T07:50:56+00:00	70.1%	10.6%	67.7%	43.3%	19.0%
2026-09-27T08:36:49+00:00	70.1%	10.6%	67.7%	43.3%	19.0%
2026-09-27T09:21:58+00:00	70.1%	10.6%	67.7%	43.3%	19.0%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	70.1%	10.6%	67.7%	43.3%	19.0%
2026-09-27T10:52:08+00:00	70.1%	10.6%	67.7%	43.3%	19.0%
2026-09-27T11:37:14+00:00	70.1%	15.3%	66.5%	43.3%	19.0%
2026-09-27T12:22:25+00:00	70.1%	15.3%	66.5%	43.3%	19.0%
2026-09-27T13:07:31+00:00	70.1%	15.3%	66.5%	43.3%	19.0%
2026-09-27T13:52:38+00:00	72.6%	15.3%	66.4%	43.3%	19.0%
2026-09-27T14:40:00+00:00	72.6%	15.3%	66.4%	43.3%	19.0%
2026-09-27T15:25:27+00:00	72.6%	18.5%	66.4%	43.3%	19.0%
2026-09-27T16:10:32+00:00	72.6%	18.5%	66.4%	43.3%	19.0%
2026-09-27T16:55:37+00:00	72.6%	18.5%	64.3%	43.3%	28.6%
2026-09-27T17:40:46+00:00	72.6%	18.5%	64.3%	43.3%	28.6%
2026-09-27T18:25:54+00:00	72.6%	18.5%	64.3%	43.3%	28.6%
2026-09-27T19:11:07+00:00	72.6%	18.5%	64.3%	43.3%	28.6%
2026-09-27T19:56:16+00:00	71.8%	18.5%	64.3%	34.9%	28.6%
2026-09-27T20:41:24+00:00	71.8%	18.5%	64.3%	34.9%	28.6%
2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00	71.8%	18.5%	64.3%	34.9%	28.6%
2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00	71.8%	18.5%	64.3%	34.9%	28.6%
2026-09-27T22:56:41+00:00	71.8%	18.5%	65.4%	34.9%	28.6%
2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00	71.8%	18.5%	65.4%	34.9%	28.6%
2026-09-28T00:26:54+00:00	71.8%	18.5%	65.4%	34.9%	28.6%
2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00	71.8%	18.5%	65.4%	34.9%	28.6%
2026-09-28T01:57:10+00:00	83.7%	18.5%	65.4%	34.9%	28.6%
2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00	83.7%	18.5%	65.4%	34.9%	28.6%
2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00	83.7%	18.5%	65.4%	34.9%	28.6%
2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00	83.7%	18.5%	65.4%	34.9%	28.6%
2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00	83.7%	18.5%	66.4%	34.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T05:43:41+00:00	83.7%	18.5%	66.4%	34.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00	83.7%	18.5%	66.4%	34.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00	83.7%	18.5%	66.4%	34.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00	85.5%	18.5%	66.4%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00	85.5%	18.5%	66.4%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00	85.5%	18.5%	66.4%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00	85.5%	18.5%	66.4%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00	85.5%	20.1%	63.8%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00	85.5%	20.1%	63.8%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00	85.5%	20.1%	63.8%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00	85.5%	20.1%	63.8%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00	81.3%	20.0%	63.7%	47.9%	19.0%
2026-09-29T04:21:15+00:00	83.8%	22.8%	68.0%	58.5%	25.7%
2026-09-29T05:06:52+00:00	83.8%	22.8%	74.0%	58.5%	19.0%
2026-09-29T05:52:01+00:00	83.8%	22.8%	74.0%	58.5%	19.0%
2026-09-29T06:37:08+00:00	83.8%	22.8%	74.0%	58.5%	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	76.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	74.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
National Blend	70%	74.1°F	3.0°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	73.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	70.2°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	69.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260929-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 23 · 02:49 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗