KPIT / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Sep 29 · 06:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

74%

58%

23%

19%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.4¢Risks 51.40u

ICONNO 48.6¢Risks 48.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.60u · ICON −48.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	50.6%	—	—	40.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	2.9%	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	72.7%	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	4.5%	1.3%	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	31.1%	55.6%	3.1%	—	44.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	29.1%	58.7%	31.0%	—	48.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	18.4%	65.6%	6.0%	—	40.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	20.6%	56.4%	4.1%	—	44.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	1.8%	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	56.6%	62.3%	23.2%	—	42.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	22.0%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	37.1%	29.9%	13.6%	—	39.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	39.3%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	31.4%	50.9%	26.6%	—	43.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	34.3%	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	15.3%	49.0%	8.6%	—	37.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	35.3%	47.0%	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	29.4%	21.9%	34.9%	—	30.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	30.7%	54.2%	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	23.0%	44.5%	7.7%	—	37.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	37.8%	63.3%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	32.0%	59.2%	4.8%	—	28.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	23.4%	57.2%	5.5%	—	32.5%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	28.7%	70.2%	6.3%	41.3%	38.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	51.3%	60.2%	15.8%	—	36.1%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	36.8%	36.8%	8.4%	48.7%	40.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	44.4%	41.7%	35.0%	—	61.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	38.6%	45.7%	28.0%	47.1%	58.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	38.1%	51.5%	17.2%	—	45.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	31.7%	59.4%	12.5%	51.6%	39.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	22.8%	59.8%	7.3%	—	30.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	76.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	74.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
National Blend	70%	74.1°F	3.0°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	73.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	70.2°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	69.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260929-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 23 · 02:49 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗