KPIT / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 23 · 10:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

18%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 15.3¢Risks 15.35u

EPSNO 84.7¢Risks 84.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +84.65u · EPS −84.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T10:21:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00	17.4%	0.0%	10.1%	13.3%	7.7%
2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00	17.4%	0.0%	10.1%	13.3%	7.7%
2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00	17.4%	0.0%	10.1%	13.3%	7.7%
2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00	17.4%	0.0%	10.1%	13.3%	7.7%
2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00	17.4%	0.2%	10.1%	13.3%	7.7%
2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00	17.4%	0.2%	10.1%	13.3%	7.7%
2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00	17.4%	0.2%	10.1%	13.3%	7.7%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	17.4%	0.2%	10.1%	13.3%	7.7%
2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00	18.0%	0.2%	10.2%	13.4%	7.8%
2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00	18.0%	0.2%	10.2%	13.4%	7.8%
2026-09-22T15:32:20+00:00	18.0%	0.1%	10.2%	13.4%	7.8%
2026-09-22T16:17:38+00:00	18.0%	0.1%	10.2%	13.4%	7.8%
2026-09-22T17:02:44+00:00	18.0%	0.1%	10.2%	13.4%	24.7%
2026-09-22T17:47:50+00:00	18.0%	0.1%	10.2%	13.4%	24.7%
2026-09-22T18:32:55+00:00	18.0%	0.1%	10.2%	13.4%	24.7%
2026-09-22T19:18:04+00:00	18.0%	0.1%	10.2%	13.4%	24.7%
2026-09-22T20:03:09+00:00	29.5%	0.1%	10.2%	13.4%	24.7%
2026-09-22T20:48:14+00:00	29.5%	0.1%	10.2%	13.4%	24.7%
2026-09-22T21:33:20+00:00	29.5%	0.1%	10.2%	13.4%	24.7%
2026-09-22T22:18:28+00:00	29.5%	0.1%	10.2%	13.4%	24.7%
2026-09-22T23:03:37+00:00	29.5%	0.1%	8.2%	13.4%	24.6%
2026-09-22T23:48:43+00:00	29.5%	0.1%	8.2%	13.4%	24.6%
2026-09-23T00:33:49+00:00	29.5%	0.1%	8.2%	13.4%	24.6%
2026-09-23T01:18:57+00:00	29.5%	0.1%	8.2%	13.4%	24.6%
2026-09-23T02:04:02+00:00	31.4%	0.1%	8.2%	13.4%	24.6%
2026-09-23T02:49:13+00:00	31.4%	0.1%	8.2%	13.4%	24.6%
2026-09-23T03:34:33+00:00	31.4%	0.1%	8.2%	13.4%	24.6%
2026-09-23T04:19:43+00:00	31.4%	0.1%	8.2%	13.4%	24.6%
2026-09-23T05:04:48+00:00	31.4%	0.1%	8.2%	14.5%	12.8%
2026-09-23T05:50:03+00:00	31.4%	0.1%	8.2%	14.5%	12.8%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	31.4%	0.1%	8.2%	14.5%	12.8%
2026-09-23T07:20:17+00:00	31.4%	0.1%	8.2%	14.5%	12.8%
2026-09-23T08:05:27+00:00	30.6%	0.1%	8.2%	18.3%	12.8%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	30.6%	0.1%	8.2%	18.3%	12.8%
2026-09-23T09:36:15+00:00	30.6%	0.1%	8.2%	18.3%	12.8%
2026-09-23T10:21:19+00:00	30.6%	0.1%	8.2%	18.3%	12.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	31%	77.8°F	5.3°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	74.5°F	6.6°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	72.7°F	6.9°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	73.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	71.9°F	2.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260929-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 22 · 07:58 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗