KPIT / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 23 · 10:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

18%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 15.3¢Risks 15.35u

EPSNO 84.7¢Risks 84.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +84.65u · EPS −84.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	11.5%	—	—	7.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	24.1%	—	—	9.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	2.9%	10.2%	0.1%	—	6.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	2.2%	10.6%	2.5%	—	6.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	0.8%	12.9%	0.1%	—	3.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.8%	7.5%	0.0%	—	4.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.0%	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	6.6%	8.7%	0.8%	—	3.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	0.6%	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	1.8%	1.1%	0.2%	—	2.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.9%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.0%	3.4%	0.7%	—	2.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.1%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.1%	2.4%	0.1%	—	1.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.9%	1.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%	0.7%	—	0.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	2.2%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.5%	2.7%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	1.8%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	2.5%	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.6%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	31%	77.8°F	5.3°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	74.5°F	6.6°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	72.7°F	6.9°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	73.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	71.9°F	2.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260929-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 22 · 07:58 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗