KPIT / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

62%

56%

39%

30%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 46.6¢Risks 46.60u

EPSNO 53.4¢Risks 53.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +53.40u · EPS −53.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T02:11:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-23T08:05:27+00:00	52.9%	27.9%	62.1%	86.6%	16.8%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	52.9%	27.9%	62.1%	86.6%	16.8%
2026-09-23T09:36:15+00:00	52.9%	27.9%	62.1%	86.6%	16.8%
2026-09-23T10:21:19+00:00	52.9%	27.9%	62.1%	86.6%	16.8%
2026-09-23T11:06:25+00:00	52.9%	43.4%	59.8%	86.6%	16.8%
2026-09-23T11:51:38+00:00	52.9%	43.4%	59.8%	86.6%	16.8%
2026-09-23T12:36:42+00:00	52.9%	43.4%	59.8%	86.6%	16.8%
2026-09-23T13:21:48+00:00	87.5%	43.4%	59.8%	86.6%	16.8%
2026-09-23T14:09:03+00:00	87.5%	43.4%	59.8%	86.5%	16.6%
2026-09-23T14:54:11+00:00	87.5%	30.4%	59.8%	86.5%	16.6%
2026-09-23T15:39:28+00:00	87.5%	30.4%	59.8%	86.5%	16.6%
2026-09-23T16:24:36+00:00	87.5%	30.4%	59.8%	86.5%	62.8%
2026-09-23T17:09:45+00:00	87.5%	30.4%	63.0%	86.5%	62.8%
2026-09-23T17:54:54+00:00	87.5%	30.4%	63.0%	86.5%	62.8%
2026-09-23T18:39:59+00:00	87.5%	30.4%	63.0%	86.5%	62.8%
2026-09-23T19:25:10+00:00	81.6%	30.4%	63.0%	56.3%	62.8%
2026-09-23T20:10:18+00:00	81.6%	30.4%	63.0%	56.3%	62.8%
2026-09-23T20:55:23+00:00	81.6%	30.4%	63.0%	56.3%	62.8%
2026-09-23T21:40:28+00:00	81.6%	30.4%	63.0%	56.3%	62.8%
2026-09-23T22:25:35+00:00	81.6%	30.4%	63.0%	56.3%	62.8%
2026-09-23T23:10:41+00:00	81.6%	30.4%	62.2%	56.3%	62.8%
2026-09-23T23:55:46+00:00	81.6%	30.4%	62.2%	56.3%	62.8%
2026-09-24T00:40:52+00:00	81.6%	30.4%	62.2%	56.3%	62.8%
2026-09-24T01:26:04+00:00	38.7%	30.4%	62.2%	56.3%	62.8%
2026-09-24T02:11:11+00:00	38.7%	30.4%	62.2%	56.3%	62.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	63%	78.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	76.5°F	6.3°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	76.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	73.9°F	5.6°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	73.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260930-TMAX-GE76
Opened Sep 23 · 08:05 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 76°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗