KPIT / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

62%

56%

39%

30%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 46.6¢Risks 46.60u

EPSNO 53.4¢Risks 53.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +53.40u · EPS −53.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	2.4%	—	—	26.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	63.7%	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	28.5%	—	—	42.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	67.0%	—	—	45.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	1.1%	83.3%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	44.4%	1.7%	0.9%	—	59.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	72.8%	35.7%	10.9%	—	52.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	35.1%	65.6%	50.0%	—	43.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	11.5%	1.4%	3.9%	—	44.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	1.4%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	13.8%	59.9%	17.3%	—	29.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	23.3%	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	9.0%	0.1%	4.3%	—	40.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	18.4%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	11.9%	28.9%	50.0%	—	36.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	33.5%	54.7%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	40.4%	58.7%	43.2%	—	30.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	18.3%	63.7%	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	26.8%	62.2%	27.6%	—	49.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	33.5%	60.5%	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	45.6%	60.8%	15.5%	0.1%	48.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	36.7%	60.0%	0.0%	—	47.8%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	43.0%	51.2%	8.1%	60.4%	50.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	24.4%	50.0%	14.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	52.5%	42.6%	21.7%	28.7%	68.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	37.3%	47.4%	26.9%	—	63.9%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	22.0%	35.6%	26.2%	31.9%	66.9%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	18.2%	41.7%	21.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	28.0%	34.5%	26.8%	26.8%	45.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	35.2%	26.0%	48.5%	—	33.8%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	23.8%	23.8%	20.3%	16.1%	33.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	21.6%	18.1%	12.3%	—	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	63%	78.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	76.5°F	6.3°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	76.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	73.9°F	5.6°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	73.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260930-TMAX-GE76
Opened Sep 23 · 08:05 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 76°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗