KPIT / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Sep 30 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

67%

35%

30%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 41.9¢Risks 41.85u

ICONNO 58.1¢Risks 58.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +58.15u · ICON −58.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T06:46:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T02:56:19+00:00	32.0%	21.2%	54.1%	50.0%	58.9%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	32.0%	21.2%	54.1%	50.0%	58.9%
2026-09-24T04:26:58+00:00	32.0%	21.2%	54.1%	50.0%	78.3%
2026-09-24T05:12:03+00:00	32.0%	21.2%	49.2%	50.0%	78.3%
2026-09-24T05:57:11+00:00	32.0%	21.2%	49.2%	50.0%	78.3%
2026-09-24T06:42:24+00:00	32.0%	21.2%	49.2%	50.0%	78.3%
2026-09-24T07:27:36+00:00	25.0%	21.2%	49.2%	33.7%	78.3%
2026-09-24T08:13:22+00:00	25.0%	21.2%	49.2%	33.7%	78.3%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	25.0%	21.2%	49.2%	33.7%	78.3%
2026-09-24T09:43:40+00:00	25.0%	21.2%	49.2%	33.7%	78.3%
2026-09-24T10:28:45+00:00	25.0%	21.2%	49.2%	33.7%	78.3%
2026-09-24T11:13:50+00:00	25.0%	18.4%	55.3%	33.7%	78.3%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	25.0%	18.4%	55.3%	33.7%	78.3%
2026-09-24T12:44:01+00:00	25.0%	18.4%	55.3%	33.7%	78.3%
2026-09-24T13:29:15+00:00	52.2%	18.4%	55.3%	33.7%	78.3%
2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00	51.5%	18.7%	55.3%	33.7%	78.3%
2026-09-28T14:48:29+00:00	79.3%	16.7%	36.7%	61.5%	30.5%
2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00	79.3%	18.2%	36.7%	61.5%	30.5%
2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00	79.3%	18.2%	36.7%	61.5%	30.5%
2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00	79.3%	18.2%	34.6%	61.5%	28.5%
2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00	79.3%	18.2%	34.6%	61.5%	28.5%
2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00	79.3%	18.2%	34.6%	61.5%	28.5%
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00	79.3%	18.2%	34.6%	61.5%	28.5%
2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00	80.6%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	28.5%
2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00	80.6%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	28.5%
2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00	80.6%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	28.5%
2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00	80.6%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	28.5%
2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00	80.6%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	28.6%
2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00	80.6%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	28.6%
2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00	80.6%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	28.6%
2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00	80.6%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	28.6%
2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00	70.1%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	28.6%
2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00	70.1%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	28.6%
2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00	70.1%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	28.6%
2026-09-29T04:21:15+00:00	70.1%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	28.6%
2026-09-29T05:06:52+00:00	70.1%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	27.5%
2026-09-29T05:52:01+00:00	70.1%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	27.5%
2026-09-29T06:37:08+00:00	70.1%	18.2%	34.6%	54.8%	27.5%
2026-09-29T07:22:17+00:00	68.9%	18.2%	34.6%	73.9%	27.5%
2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00	68.9%	18.2%	34.6%	73.9%	27.5%
2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00	68.9%	18.2%	34.6%	73.9%	27.5%
2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00	68.9%	18.2%	34.6%	73.9%	27.5%
2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00	68.9%	18.2%	34.6%	73.9%	27.5%
2026-09-29T11:08:47+00:00	68.9%	29.1%	34.6%	73.9%	27.5%
2026-09-29T11:54:05+00:00	68.9%	29.1%	34.6%	73.9%	27.5%
2026-09-29T12:39:10+00:00	68.9%	29.1%	34.6%	73.9%	27.5%
2026-09-29T13:24:14+00:00	74.8%	29.1%	34.6%	73.9%	27.5%
2026-09-29T14:11:38+00:00	74.0%	29.1%	34.7%	73.9%	27.5%
2026-09-29T14:56:49+00:00	74.0%	29.7%	34.7%	73.9%	27.5%
2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00	74.0%	29.6%	34.7%	73.9%	27.5%
2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00	74.0%	29.6%	34.7%	73.9%	9.6%
2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:00	74.0%	29.6%	35.2%	73.9%	9.6%
2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00	74.0%	29.6%	35.2%	73.9%	9.6%
2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00	74.0%	29.6%	35.2%	73.9%	9.6%
2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:00	73.2%	29.6%	35.2%	75.7%	9.6%
2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:00	73.2%	29.6%	35.2%	75.7%	9.6%
2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00	73.2%	29.6%	35.2%	75.7%	9.6%
2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:00	73.2%	29.6%	35.2%	75.7%	9.6%
2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00	73.2%	29.6%	35.2%	75.7%	9.6%
2026-09-29T23:14:09+00:00	73.2%	29.7%	36.3%	75.7%	9.6%
2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00	73.2%	29.7%	36.3%	75.7%	9.6%
2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:00	73.2%	29.7%	36.3%	75.7%	9.6%
2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00	67.2%	29.7%	36.3%	75.7%	9.6%
2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:00	67.2%	29.7%	36.3%	75.7%	9.6%
2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:00	67.2%	29.7%	36.3%	75.7%	9.6%
2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00	67.2%	29.7%	36.3%	75.7%	9.6%
2026-09-30T04:30:31+00:00	67.2%	29.7%	36.3%	75.7%	8.0%
2026-09-30T05:16:18+00:00	67.2%	29.7%	35.2%	75.7%	8.0%
2026-09-30T06:01:26+00:00	67.2%	29.7%	35.2%	75.7%	8.0%
2026-09-30T06:46:34+00:00	67.2%	29.7%	35.2%	75.7%	8.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	76%	79.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	78.3°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	77.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	75.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	75.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	71.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260930-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗