KPIT / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Sep 30 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

67%

35%

30%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 41.9¢Risks 41.85u

ICONNO 58.1¢Risks 58.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +58.15u · ICON −58.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	22.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	57.8%	—	—	31.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	23.4%	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	60.9%	—	—	39.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	78.7%	—	—	46.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	37.6%	1.1%	0.5%	—	52.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	66.3%	29.1%	7.9%	—	45.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	28.3%	58.3%	42.4%	—	35.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	8.1%	0.8%	2.5%	—	36.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	0.8%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	9.7%	51.7%	12.5%	—	22.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	17.3%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	5.9%	0.0%	2.7%	—	32.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	13.0%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	7.9%	21.6%	40.9%	—	28.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	25.3%	45.3%	—	—	24.6%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	31.3%	49.0%	33.9%	—	22.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	12.4%	54.0%	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	19.0%	52.1%	19.7%	—	38.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	24.5%	50.0%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	35.1%	50.0%	9.9%	0.0%	38.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	26.7%	48.9%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	32.0%	39.6%	4.5%	48.8%	38.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	16.0%	38.1%	8.7%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	40.1%	30.9%	13.7%	19.1%	56.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	25.9%	34.9%	17.4%	—	51.3%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	13.4%	24.0%	16.5%	21.0%	54.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	10.4%	28.8%	12.4%	—	36.3%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	17.2%	22.2%	16.3%	16.3%	31.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	13.6%	22.4%	15.3%	33.8%	—	21.3%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	13.4%	13.4%	11.0%	8.3%	20.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.5%	9.2%	5.8%	—	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	76%	79.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	78.3°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	77.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	75.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	75.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	71.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260930-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗