KPIT / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 30 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

29%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 17.9¢Risks 17.95u

ICONNO 82.0¢Risks 82.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +82.05u · ICON −82.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	34.1%	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	8.8%	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	35.4%	—	—	17.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.1%	54.7%	—	—	22.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	15.3%	0.1%	0.1%	—	25.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	37.8%	10.0%	1.6%	—	19.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	9.0%	28.9%	16.9%	—	12.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	1.4%	0.1%	0.3%	—	12.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	1.6%	21.3%	2.3%	—	5.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	3.6%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	0.7%	0.0%	0.2%	—	9.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	2.1%	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	1.0%	4.3%	12.4%	—	6.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	5.3%	14.3%	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	7.2%	15.9%	8.2%	—	4.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	1.6%	18.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	2.8%	16.3%	3.0%	—	9.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	4.0%	14.4%	—	—	10.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	7.0%	13.7%	0.9%	0.0%	8.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	4.0%	12.3%	0.0%	—	7.1%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	5.1%	7.6%	0.2%	11.6%	7.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	1.4%	6.6%	0.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	6.7%	4.0%	0.9%	1.7%	13.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	2.6%	4.6%	1.3%	—	10.3%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.7%	2.0%	1.0%	1.6%	10.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.4%	2.5%	0.5%	—	4.0%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.8%	1.3%	0.7%	0.7%	2.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.1%	0.5%	2.7%	—	1.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	35%	79.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	78.3°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	77.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	75.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	75.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	71.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260930-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 23 · 08:05 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗