KPIT / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

78%

56%

37%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.2¢Risks 68.15u

HRESNO 31.9¢Risks 31.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.85u · HRES −31.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T03:04:08+00:00	98.4%	67.7%	95.0%	84.2%	76.6%
2026-09-25T03:49:44+00:00	98.4%	67.7%	95.0%	84.2%	76.6%
2026-09-25T04:34:48+00:00	98.4%	67.7%	95.0%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T05:19:56+00:00	98.4%	67.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T06:05:03+00:00	98.4%	67.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T06:50:09+00:00	98.4%	67.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T07:35:16+00:00	99.1%	67.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T08:20:23+00:00	99.1%	67.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T09:05:28+00:00	99.1%	67.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T09:50:33+00:00	99.1%	67.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T10:35:38+00:00	99.1%	67.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T11:20:45+00:00	99.1%	70.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T12:05:51+00:00	99.1%	70.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T12:50:56+00:00	99.1%	70.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T13:36:02+00:00	99.4%	70.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T14:23:04+00:00	99.4%	70.4%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T15:08:10+00:00	99.4%	73.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T15:53:16+00:00	99.4%	73.7%	94.1%	84.2%	75.6%
2026-09-25T16:38:21+00:00	99.4%	73.7%	94.1%	84.2%	92.6%
2026-09-25T17:23:29+00:00	99.4%	73.7%	98.6%	84.2%	92.6%
2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00	76.8%	73.7%	98.0%	70.6%	92.6%
2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00	76.8%	73.7%	98.0%	70.6%	92.6%
2026-09-26T03:56:55+00:00	76.8%	73.7%	98.0%	70.6%	92.6%
2026-09-26T04:42:02+00:00	76.8%	73.7%	98.0%	70.6%	95.0%
2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00	76.8%	73.7%	97.9%	70.6%	95.0%
2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00	76.8%	73.7%	97.9%	70.6%	95.0%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	76.8%	73.7%	97.9%	70.6%	95.0%
2026-09-26T07:42:44+00:00	99.6%	73.7%	97.9%	50.0%	95.0%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00	99.6%	73.7%	97.9%	50.0%	95.0%
2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00	99.6%	73.7%	97.9%	50.0%	95.0%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	99.6%	73.7%	97.9%	50.0%	95.0%
2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00	99.6%	73.7%	97.9%	50.0%	95.0%
2026-09-26T11:29:13+00:00	99.6%	77.0%	98.9%	50.0%	95.0%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00	99.6%	77.0%	98.9%	50.0%	95.0%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00	99.6%	77.0%	98.9%	50.0%	95.0%
2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00	99.7%	77.0%	98.9%	50.0%	95.0%
2026-09-26T14:32:02+00:00	99.7%	77.0%	98.9%	50.0%	95.0%
2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	98.9%	50.0%	95.0%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	98.9%	50.0%	95.0%
2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	98.9%	50.0%	56.1%
2026-09-26T17:32:49+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	98.9%	50.0%	56.1%
2026-09-26T18:17:56+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	98.9%	50.0%	56.1%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	98.9%	50.0%	56.1%
2026-09-26T19:48:16+00:00	99.8%	78.4%	98.9%	36.6%	56.1%
2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00	99.8%	78.4%	98.9%	36.6%	56.1%
2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00	99.8%	78.4%	98.9%	36.6%	56.1%
2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00	99.8%	78.4%	98.9%	36.6%	56.1%
2026-09-26T22:48:42+00:00	99.8%	78.4%	98.9%	36.6%	56.1%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00	99.8%	78.4%	98.8%	36.6%	56.1%
2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00	99.8%	78.4%	98.8%	36.6%	56.1%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00	99.8%	78.4%	98.8%	36.6%	56.1%
2026-09-27T01:49:24+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	98.8%	36.6%	56.1%
2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00	99.7%	78.4%	98.8%	36.6%	56.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	86.1°F	4.9°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	99%	82.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	75.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	73.4°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	72.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	70.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261001-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗