KPIT / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

78%

56%

37%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.2¢Risks 68.15u

HRESNO 31.9¢Risks 31.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.85u · HRES −31.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	20.9%	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	26.2%	—	—	58.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	46.9%	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	3.5%	—	—	76.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	43.3%	49.3%	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	96.4%	22.4%	—	76.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	62.3%	91.0%	55.1%	—	84.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	90.7%	59.8%	74.9%	—	81.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	93.1%	68.4%	83.2%	—	82.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	97.5%	8.8%	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	39.3%	38.5%	79.9%	—	86.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	81.0%	93.6%	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	95.7%	96.4%	93.0%	—	94.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	92.8%	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	97.0%	97.8%	95.0%	—	94.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	96.4%	98.3%	—	—	95.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	98.2%	98.5%	89.8%	—	97.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	98.4%	98.7%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	97.9%	98.6%	94.2%	—	98.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	88.4%	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	89.1%	98.1%	97.4%	—	93.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	90.3%	95.0%	2.7%	—	94.3%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	96.2%	99.0%	98.0%	96.2%	98.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	94.8%	98.4%	97.1%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	93.3%	98.5%	97.2%	95.7%	99.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.6%	99.1%	98.7%	—	0.6%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	99.2%	99.1%	96.5%	99.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	99.3%	99.2%	—	99.8%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	99.5%	99.4%	99.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	99.5%	—	99.9%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.7%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	86.1°F	4.9°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	99%	82.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	75.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	73.4°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	72.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	70.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261001-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗