KPIT / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

94%

94%

74%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 87.1¢Risks 87.05u

EPSNO 12.9¢Risks 12.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +12.95u · EPS −12.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T07:27:36+00:00	83.4%	52.1%	85.6%	78.9%	54.1%
2026-09-24T08:13:22+00:00	83.4%	52.1%	85.6%	78.9%	54.1%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	83.4%	52.1%	85.6%	78.9%	54.1%
2026-09-24T09:43:40+00:00	83.4%	52.1%	85.6%	78.9%	54.1%
2026-09-24T10:28:45+00:00	83.4%	52.1%	85.6%	78.9%	54.1%
2026-09-24T11:13:50+00:00	83.4%	58.3%	89.3%	78.9%	54.1%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	83.4%	58.3%	89.3%	78.9%	54.1%
2026-09-24T12:44:01+00:00	83.4%	58.3%	89.3%	78.9%	54.1%
2026-09-24T13:29:15+00:00	88.9%	58.3%	89.3%	78.9%	54.1%
2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00	88.5%	58.2%	89.2%	78.8%	54.1%
2026-09-24T15:01:48+00:00	88.5%	52.4%	89.2%	78.8%	54.1%
2026-09-24T15:47:14+00:00	88.5%	52.4%	89.2%	78.8%	54.1%
2026-09-24T16:32:26+00:00	88.5%	52.4%	89.2%	78.8%	54.1%
2026-09-24T17:17:32+00:00	88.5%	52.4%	85.8%	78.8%	54.1%
2026-09-24T18:02:38+00:00	88.5%	52.4%	85.8%	78.8%	54.1%
2026-09-24T18:47:42+00:00	88.5%	52.4%	85.8%	78.8%	54.1%
2026-09-24T19:32:51+00:00	91.9%	52.4%	85.8%	78.8%	69.9%
2026-09-24T20:17:59+00:00	91.9%	52.4%	85.8%	78.8%	69.9%
2026-09-24T21:03:05+00:00	91.9%	52.4%	85.8%	78.8%	69.9%
2026-09-24T21:48:10+00:00	91.9%	52.4%	85.8%	78.8%	69.9%
2026-09-24T22:33:16+00:00	91.9%	52.4%	85.8%	75.5%	69.9%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	91.9%	52.4%	89.2%	75.5%	69.9%
2026-09-25T00:03:29+00:00	91.9%	52.4%	89.2%	75.5%	69.9%
2026-09-25T00:48:38+00:00	91.9%	52.4%	89.2%	75.5%	69.9%
2026-09-25T01:33:49+00:00	96.2%	52.4%	89.2%	75.5%	69.9%
2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00	96.2%	52.4%	89.2%	75.5%	69.9%
2026-09-25T18:08:40+00:00	98.4%	55.0%	96.1%	75.5%	87.7%
2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00	98.4%	55.0%	96.1%	75.5%	87.7%
2026-09-25T19:39:20+00:00	89.6%	55.0%	96.1%	59.5%	87.7%
2026-09-25T20:25:16+00:00	89.6%	55.0%	96.1%	59.5%	87.7%
2026-09-25T21:10:21+00:00	89.6%	55.0%	96.1%	59.5%	87.7%
2026-09-25T21:55:27+00:00	89.6%	55.0%	96.1%	59.5%	87.7%
2026-09-25T22:40:31+00:00	89.6%	55.0%	96.1%	59.5%	87.7%
2026-09-25T23:25:36+00:00	89.6%	55.0%	94.6%	59.5%	87.7%
2026-09-26T00:10:43+00:00	89.6%	55.0%	94.6%	59.5%	87.7%
2026-09-26T00:55:51+00:00	89.6%	55.0%	94.6%	59.5%	87.7%
2026-09-26T01:41:02+00:00	63.9%	55.0%	94.6%	59.5%	87.7%
2026-09-27T03:19:39+00:00	99.1%	62.2%	96.3%	24.6%	42.5%
2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00	99.1%	62.2%	96.3%	24.6%	42.5%
2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00	99.1%	62.2%	96.3%	24.6%	93.3%
2026-09-27T05:35:26+00:00	99.1%	62.2%	98.2%	24.6%	93.3%
2026-09-27T06:20:37+00:00	99.1%	62.2%	98.2%	24.6%	93.3%
2026-09-27T07:05:43+00:00	99.1%	62.2%	98.2%	24.6%	93.3%
2026-09-27T07:50:56+00:00	99.5%	62.2%	98.2%	94.0%	93.3%
2026-09-27T08:36:49+00:00	99.5%	62.2%	98.2%	94.0%	93.3%
2026-09-27T09:21:58+00:00	99.5%	62.2%	98.2%	94.0%	93.3%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	99.5%	62.2%	98.2%	94.0%	93.3%
2026-09-27T10:52:08+00:00	99.5%	62.2%	98.2%	94.0%	93.3%
2026-09-27T11:37:14+00:00	99.5%	73.2%	98.0%	94.0%	93.3%
2026-09-27T12:22:25+00:00	99.5%	73.2%	98.0%	94.0%	93.3%
2026-09-27T13:07:31+00:00	99.5%	73.2%	98.0%	94.0%	93.3%
2026-09-27T13:52:38+00:00	99.4%	73.2%	98.0%	94.0%	93.6%
2026-09-27T14:40:00+00:00	99.4%	73.2%	98.0%	94.0%	93.6%
2026-09-27T15:25:27+00:00	99.4%	74.5%	98.0%	94.0%	93.6%
2026-09-27T16:10:32+00:00	99.4%	74.5%	98.0%	94.0%	93.6%
2026-09-27T16:55:37+00:00	99.4%	74.5%	97.5%	94.0%	94.4%
2026-09-27T17:40:46+00:00	99.4%	74.5%	97.5%	94.0%	94.4%
2026-09-27T18:25:54+00:00	99.4%	74.5%	97.5%	94.0%	94.4%
2026-09-27T19:11:07+00:00	99.4%	74.5%	97.5%	94.0%	94.4%
2026-09-27T19:56:16+00:00	99.5%	74.5%	97.5%	94.4%	94.4%
2026-09-27T20:41:24+00:00	99.5%	74.5%	97.5%	94.4%	94.4%
2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00	99.5%	74.5%	97.5%	94.4%	94.4%
2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00	99.5%	74.5%	97.5%	94.4%	94.4%
2026-09-27T22:56:41+00:00	99.5%	74.5%	97.3%	94.4%	94.4%
2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00	99.5%	74.5%	97.3%	94.4%	94.4%
2026-09-28T00:26:54+00:00	99.5%	74.5%	97.3%	94.4%	94.4%
2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00	99.5%	74.5%	97.3%	94.4%	94.4%
2026-09-28T01:57:10+00:00	99.6%	74.5%	97.3%	94.4%	94.4%
2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00	99.6%	74.5%	97.3%	94.4%	94.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	86.7°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	82.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	82.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
ICON	94%	82.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	77.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
National Blend	69%	76.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261001-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗