KPIT / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

94%

94%

74%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 87.1¢Risks 87.05u

EPSNO 12.9¢Risks 12.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +12.95u · EPS −12.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	13.5%	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	17.3%	—	—	46.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	34.7%	—	—	44.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	1.6%	—	—	65.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	30.6%	36.1%	—	—	63.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	92.6%	13.4%	—	64.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	47.8%	83.5%	40.6%	—	74.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	82.6%	44.7%	61.3%	—	69.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	93.3%	86.0%	53.2%	71.2%	—	70.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	3.9%	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	24.5%	23.8%	66.2%	—	75.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	67.4%	86.3%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	89.9%	91.3%	84.9%	—	86.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	84.5%	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	92.1%	93.9%	88.1%	—	87.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	90.8%	94.9%	—	—	89.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	94.6%	95.4%	78.2%	—	91.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	94.8%	95.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	93.6%	95.3%	85.5%	—	95.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	74.7%	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	75.3%	93.8%	91.9%	—	82.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	76.9%	85.9%	0.6%	—	84.6%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	88.4%	96.0%	92.8%	88.4%	93.9%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	84.8%	93.8%	90.3%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	80.9%	93.7%	90.0%	86.3%	97.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	97.8%	95.7%	94.4%	—	0.1%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.4%	95.7%	95.4%	87.4%	97.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	98.7%	96.3%	95.7%	—	98.7%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.6%	97.3%	96.5%	96.3%	99.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.5%	97.8%	96.6%	—	98.9%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.6%	98.9%	97.6%	98.8%	99.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	99.9%	99.5%	99.0%	—	99.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	86.7°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	82.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	82.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
ICON	94%	82.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	77.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
National Blend	69%	76.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261001-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗