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KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
81%
EPS
49%
AIFS
20%
ICON
16%
HRES
13%
Consensus
39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 47.3¢Risks 47.35u
VS
HRESNO 52.6¢Risks 52.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.65u · HRES −52.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:00AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-09-29T23:14:09+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-29T23:14:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.1% · 2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.0% · 2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.0% · 2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-09-29T23:14:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.4% · 2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-29T23:14:09+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00ICON: 24.4% · 2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-29T23:14:09+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:0009-29 15:4209-29 21:4309-30 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-29T15:42:11+00:0059.1%49.1%95.0%25.2%24.4%
2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:0059.1%49.1%95.0%25.2%15.9%
2026-09-29T17:12:49+00:0059.1%49.1%89.3%25.2%15.9%
2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:0059.1%49.1%89.3%25.2%15.9%
2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:0059.1%49.1%89.3%25.2%15.9%
2026-09-29T19:28:12+00:0017.9%49.1%89.3%13.3%15.9%
2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:0017.9%49.1%89.3%13.3%15.9%
2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:0017.9%49.1%89.3%13.3%15.9%
2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:0017.9%49.1%89.3%13.3%15.9%
2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:0017.9%49.1%89.3%13.3%15.9%
2026-09-29T23:14:09+00:0017.9%49.1%81.4%13.3%15.9%
2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:0017.9%49.1%81.4%13.3%15.9%
2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:0017.9%49.1%81.4%13.3%15.9%
2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:0019.8%49.1%81.4%13.3%15.9%
2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:0019.8%49.1%81.4%13.3%15.9%
2026-09-30T03:00:05+00:0019.8%49.1%81.4%13.3%15.9%
2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:0019.8%49.1%81.4%13.3%15.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 281%79.8°F3.7°F2026-09-29 12:00Pending
National Blend58%77.8°F6.6°F2026-09-29 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%77.0°F3.9°F2026-09-29 15:00Pending
IFS Ensemble49%76.4°F4.3°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
AIFS Single20%72.8°F4.3°F2026-09-29 18:00Pending
ICON16%72.6°F3.9°F2026-09-29 12:00Pending
IFS HRES13%71.5°F4.5°F2026-09-29 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 29 · 15:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗