KPIT / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

49%

20%

16%

13%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.3¢Risks 47.35u

HRESNO 52.6¢Risks 52.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.65u · HRES −52.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	7.6%	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	88.0%	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	4.2%	87.2%	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	79.6%	90.4%	3.3%	—	33.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	23.7%	79.5%	27.2%	—	35.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	7.0%	3.8%	4.2%	—	30.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	28.1%	3.9%	2.2%	—	33.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	21.8%	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	22.5%	8.3%	16.8%	—	12.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	88.1%	14.7%	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	20.8%	19.6%	8.6%	—	30.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	22.2%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	19.0%	63.6%	30.6%	—	70.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	7.4%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	21.8%	88.4%	21.0%	—	40.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	21.1%	50.0%	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	12.8%	7.1%	7.1%	13.9%	17.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	12.1%	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	10.9%	2.4%	3.1%	9.9%	31.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	15.4%	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	16.8%	8.1%	1.5%	28.0%	9.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	13.2%	0.9%	1.9%	—	16.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	15.9%	1.1%	2.1%	23.6%	10.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	15.0%	1.4%	11.5%	—	12.8%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	16.5%	0.6%	0.9%	20.0%	4.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	18.2%	0.7%	1.1%	—	6.7%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	13.0%	0.8%	1.3%	19.1%	5.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.1%	0.4%	1.5%	—	3.7%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.2%	1.8%	16.1%	3.7%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	79.8°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	77.8°F	6.6°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	76.4°F	4.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	72.8°F	4.3°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
ICON	16%	72.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	71.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261002-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 29 · 15:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗