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KPIT / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Sep 28 · 14:01 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
HRES
94%
EPS
83%
AIFS
70%
ICON
56%
Consensus
87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 77.7¢Risks 77.70u
VS
ICONNO 22.3¢Risks 22.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.30u · ICON −22.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00AIFS Single: 70.1% · 2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.2% · 2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.2% · 2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.2% · 2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.2% · 2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.2% · 2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.4% · 2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.4% · 2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.9% · 2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:00ICON: 82.4% · 2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00ICON: 55.8% · 2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:0009-28 03:2709-28 08:4509-28 14:01
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-28T03:27:24+00:0093.7%80.8%99.4%96.7%82.4%
2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:0093.7%80.8%99.4%96.7%82.4%
2026-09-28T04:58:33+00:0093.7%80.8%99.9%96.7%55.8%
2026-09-28T05:43:42+00:0093.7%80.8%99.9%96.7%55.8%
2026-09-28T06:28:53+00:0093.7%80.8%99.9%96.7%55.8%
2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:0093.7%80.8%99.9%96.7%55.8%
2026-09-28T07:59:14+00:0076.2%80.8%99.9%94.5%55.8%
2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:0076.2%80.8%99.9%94.5%55.8%
2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:0076.2%80.8%99.9%94.5%55.8%
2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:0076.2%80.8%99.9%94.5%55.8%
2026-09-28T11:00:45+00:0076.2%83.2%99.6%94.5%55.8%
2026-09-28T11:46:03+00:0076.2%83.2%99.6%94.5%55.8%
2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:0076.2%83.2%99.6%94.5%55.8%
2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:0076.2%83.2%99.6%94.5%55.8%
2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:0070.1%83.2%99.6%94.5%55.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%75.5°F4.5°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
IFS HRES94%74.1°F6.6°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble83%69.1°F5.8°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
National Blend71%66.5°F5.5°F2026-09-28 06:00Pending
AIFS Single70%66.3°F5.3°F2026-09-28 06:00Pending
ICON56%64.5°F6.9°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%64.0°F5.8°F2026-09-28 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 28 · 03:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗