KPIT / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Sep 28 · 14:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

94%

83%

70%

56%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.7¢Risks 77.70u

ICONNO 22.3¢Risks 22.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.30u · ICON −22.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	85.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	88.0%	—	—	94.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	81.9%	—	—	83.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	35.9%	—	—	76.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	95.4%	—	—	79.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	15.9%	27.7%	—	—	78.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	81.6%	58.4%	16.6%	—	86.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	35.0%	63.6%	51.5%	—	89.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	21.6%	33.0%	66.3%	—	85.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	90.3%	90.0%	33.0%	—	82.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	73.7%	63.6%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	36.9%	—	52.5%	82.2%	82.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	50.0%	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	93.0%	80.4%	95.7%	98.1%	—	91.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	27.9%	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	57.3%	93.0%	94.7%	—	87.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	87.3%	31.8%	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	20.3%	84.7%	93.5%	—	92.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	95.8%	98.3%	77.3%	96.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	99.2%	—	—	96.9%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	92.7%	97.1%	1.5%	97.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	95.5%	6.0%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	87.9%	98.9%	—	98.6%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	98.6%	99.2%	98.4%	—	65.3%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	98.5%	99.5%	98.7%	99.2%	99.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	98.7%	99.0%	99.3%	99.4%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.1%	98.8%	98.9%	99.4%	99.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.8%	99.3%	99.3%	—	99.6%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.8%	99.4%	99.4%	99.3%	99.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.8%	99.2%	99.4%	—	99.6%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.8%	99.4%	99.1%	99.7%	99.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	99.9%	99.7%	99.7%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	74.1°F	6.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	69.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
National Blend	71%	66.5°F	5.5°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	66.3°F	5.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	64.5°F	6.9°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 28 · 03:27 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗