KPIT / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 04 · 06:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

82%

76%

54%

36%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.3¢Risks 64.30u

ICONNO 35.7¢Risks 35.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.70u · ICON −35.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T06:44:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T03:32:54+00:00	79.4%	41.1%	93.2%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00	79.4%	41.1%	93.2%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00	79.4%	41.1%	95.1%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00	79.4%	41.1%	95.1%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	79.4%	41.1%	95.1%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00	79.4%	41.1%	95.1%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00	81.4%	41.1%	95.1%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00	81.4%	41.1%	95.1%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00	81.4%	41.1%	95.1%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00	81.4%	41.1%	95.1%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00	81.4%	50.0%	94.3%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00	81.4%	50.0%	94.3%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00	81.4%	50.0%	94.3%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00	81.4%	50.0%	94.3%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T14:09:32+00:00	81.5%	50.0%	94.3%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T14:54:50+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	94.3%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T15:40:17+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	94.3%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T16:25:23+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	94.3%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T17:10:29+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	95.4%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T17:55:37+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	95.4%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T18:40:44+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	95.4%	81.9%	34.5%
2026-10-03T19:25:50+00:00	79.4%	54.1%	95.4%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-03T20:11:04+00:00	79.4%	54.1%	95.4%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-03T20:56:15+00:00	79.4%	54.1%	95.4%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-03T21:41:24+00:00	79.4%	54.1%	95.4%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-03T22:26:30+00:00	79.4%	54.1%	95.4%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-03T23:11:36+00:00	79.4%	54.1%	92.6%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-03T23:56:41+00:00	79.4%	54.1%	92.6%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-04T00:41:47+00:00	79.4%	54.1%	92.6%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-04T01:26:58+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	92.6%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-04T02:12:16+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	92.6%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-04T02:57:26+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	92.6%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-04T03:42:43+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	92.6%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-04T04:28:36+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	92.6%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-04T05:13:56+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	93.0%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-04T05:59:03+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	93.0%	76.5%	35.6%
2026-10-04T06:44:09+00:00	81.5%	54.1%	93.0%	76.5%	35.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	74.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	74.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	73.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
National Blend	66%	72.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-04 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	70.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	69.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 03 · 03:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗