KPIT / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 04 · 06:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

82%

76%

54%

36%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.3¢Risks 64.30u

ICONNO 35.7¢Risks 35.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.70u · ICON −35.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	55.9%	—	—	70.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	44.0%	—	—	47.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	7.1%	—	—	34.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	70.5%	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.4%	3.8%	—	—	34.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	36.9%	15.3%	1.4%	—	45.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	4.8%	17.5%	10.6%	—	49.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	1.7%	3.8%	17.9%	—	39.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	46.0%	45.2%	3.3%	—	32.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	13.9%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	3.6%	—	8.0%	29.3%	30.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	6.7%	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	24.8%	57.0%	70.1%	—	42.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	1.5%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	7.6%	44.5%	50.0%	—	31.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	1.6%	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	0.6%	24.7%	42.3%	—	38.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	—	46.9%	62.2%	14.5%	52.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	71.2%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	32.1%	48.9%	0.0%	53.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	38.9%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	19.1%	59.2%	—	55.8%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	53.6%	61.9%	51.2%	—	4.3%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	48.8%	64.6%	51.2%	58.7%	68.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	52.6%	57.7%	60.2%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	50.0%	46.0%	47.3%	55.4%	64.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	65.0%	51.4%	50.0%	—	58.3%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	64.2%	48.5%	48.5%	45.7%	62.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	60.5%	41.0%	44.0%	—	51.5%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	56.3%	40.6%	34.6%	46.8%	53.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	53.3%	45.1%	41.8%	—	56.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	74.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	74.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	73.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
National Blend	66%	72.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-04 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	70.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	69.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261004-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 03 · 03:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗