KPIT / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

89%

80%

75%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.2¢Risks 87.25u

ICONNO 12.7¢Risks 12.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.75u · ICON −12.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-30T15:53:23+00:00	68.1%	78.5%	73.1%	64.2%	76.7%
2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00	68.1%	78.5%	73.1%	64.2%	71.5%
2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00	68.1%	78.5%	74.5%	64.2%	71.5%
2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00	68.1%	78.5%	74.5%	64.2%	71.5%
2026-09-30T18:54:12+00:00	68.1%	78.5%	74.5%	64.2%	71.5%
2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00	84.1%	78.5%	74.5%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00	84.1%	78.5%	74.5%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00	84.1%	78.5%	74.5%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-09-30T21:54:43+00:00	84.1%	78.5%	74.5%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-09-30T22:39:49+00:00	84.1%	78.5%	74.5%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00	84.1%	78.5%	81.0%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-10-01T00:10:05+00:00	84.1%	78.5%	81.0%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-10-01T00:55:49+00:00	84.1%	78.5%	81.0%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-10-01T01:40:54+00:00	74.5%	78.5%	81.0%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00	74.5%	78.5%	81.0%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-10-01T03:11:12+00:00	74.5%	78.5%	81.0%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-10-01T03:57:02+00:00	74.5%	78.5%	81.0%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-10-01T04:42:07+00:00	74.5%	78.5%	81.0%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	74.5%	78.5%	81.0%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-10-01T06:12:18+00:00	74.5%	78.5%	81.0%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-10-01T06:57:23+00:00	74.5%	78.5%	81.0%	70.2%	71.5%
2026-10-01T07:42:33+00:00	81.4%	78.5%	81.0%	67.9%	71.5%
2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:00	81.4%	78.5%	81.0%	67.9%	71.5%
2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:00	81.4%	78.5%	81.0%	67.9%	71.5%
2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:00	81.4%	78.5%	81.0%	67.9%	71.5%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	81.4%	78.5%	81.0%	67.9%	71.5%
2026-10-01T11:29:04+00:00	81.4%	79.5%	79.0%	67.9%	71.5%
2026-10-01T12:14:27+00:00	81.4%	79.5%	79.0%	67.9%	71.5%
2026-10-01T12:59:33+00:00	81.4%	79.5%	79.0%	67.9%	71.5%
2026-10-01T13:44:40+00:00	83.5%	79.5%	79.0%	67.9%	71.5%
2026-10-01T14:32:53+00:00	83.5%	79.5%	79.0%	68.0%	71.5%
2026-10-01T15:18:06+00:00	83.5%	81.1%	79.0%	68.0%	71.5%
2026-10-01T16:03:39+00:00	83.5%	81.1%	79.0%	68.0%	71.5%
2026-10-01T16:48:47+00:00	83.5%	81.1%	79.0%	68.0%	71.5%
2026-10-01T17:33:56+00:00	83.5%	81.1%	81.0%	68.0%	71.5%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	83.5%	81.1%	81.0%	68.0%	71.5%
2026-10-01T19:04:07+00:00	83.5%	81.1%	81.0%	68.0%	71.5%
2026-10-01T19:49:12+00:00	85.5%	81.1%	81.0%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-01T20:34:23+00:00	85.5%	81.1%	81.0%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-01T21:19:29+00:00	85.5%	81.1%	81.0%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-01T22:04:37+00:00	85.5%	81.1%	81.0%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-01T22:49:46+00:00	85.5%	81.1%	81.0%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-01T23:34:51+00:00	85.5%	81.1%	82.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T00:19:57+00:00	85.5%	81.1%	82.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T01:05:06+00:00	85.5%	81.1%	82.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T01:50:17+00:00	86.4%	81.1%	82.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T02:35:38+00:00	86.4%	81.1%	82.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T03:20:50+00:00	86.4%	81.1%	82.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T04:06:23+00:00	86.4%	81.1%	82.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T04:51:29+00:00	86.4%	81.1%	82.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T05:36:39+00:00	86.4%	81.1%	94.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T06:21:59+00:00	86.4%	81.1%	94.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T07:07:06+00:00	86.4%	81.1%	94.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T07:52:19+00:00	93.5%	81.1%	94.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T08:37:30+00:00	93.5%	81.1%	94.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T09:22:35+00:00	93.5%	81.1%	94.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T10:07:41+00:00	93.5%	81.1%	94.9%	78.1%	71.5%
2026-10-02T10:52:57+00:00	93.5%	89.4%	98.7%	82.6%	71.5%
2026-10-02T11:39:17+00:00	93.5%	89.4%	98.7%	82.6%	71.5%
2026-10-02T12:25:20+00:00	93.5%	89.4%	98.7%	82.6%	71.5%
2026-10-02T13:10:25+00:00	93.5%	89.4%	98.7%	82.6%	71.5%
2026-10-02T13:55:40+00:00	92.7%	89.4%	98.7%	82.6%	71.4%
2026-10-02T14:44:19+00:00	92.7%	89.4%	99.2%	82.6%	71.4%
2026-10-02T15:29:51+00:00	92.7%	89.4%	99.2%	82.6%	71.4%
2026-10-02T16:14:59+00:00	92.7%	89.4%	99.2%	82.6%	71.4%
2026-10-02T17:00:07+00:00	92.7%	89.4%	98.8%	82.6%	75.1%
2026-10-02T17:45:21+00:00	92.7%	89.4%	98.8%	82.6%	75.1%
2026-10-02T18:30:26+00:00	92.7%	89.4%	98.8%	82.6%	75.1%
2026-10-02T19:15:33+00:00	92.7%	89.4%	98.8%	82.6%	75.1%
2026-10-02T20:00:40+00:00	96.2%	89.4%	98.8%	82.6%	75.1%
2026-10-02T20:45:50+00:00	96.2%	89.4%	98.8%	82.6%	75.1%
2026-10-02T21:30:56+00:00	96.2%	89.4%	98.8%	82.6%	75.1%
2026-10-02T22:16:03+00:00	96.2%	89.4%	98.8%	82.6%	75.1%
2026-10-02T23:01:43+00:00	96.2%	89.4%	99.4%	80.5%	75.1%
2026-10-02T23:46:51+00:00	96.2%	89.4%	99.4%	80.5%	75.1%
2026-10-03T00:31:58+00:00	96.2%	89.4%	99.4%	80.5%	75.1%
2026-10-03T01:17:08+00:00	96.2%	89.4%	99.4%	80.5%	75.1%
2026-10-03T02:02:26+00:00	95.7%	89.4%	99.4%	80.5%	75.1%
2026-10-03T02:47:40+00:00	95.7%	89.4%	99.4%	80.5%	75.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	67.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	66.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	62.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	62.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	61.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261006-TMAX-GE59
Opened Sep 30 · 15:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 59°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗