KPIT / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

89%

80%

75%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.2¢Risks 87.25u

ICONNO 12.7¢Risks 12.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.75u · ICON −12.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	78.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	5.9%	—	—	82.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	94.1%	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	7.4%	—	—	78.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	43.5%	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	28.8%	60.0%	—	—	74.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	8.5%	—	11.5%	77.0%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	62.9%	49.3%	51.5%	—	66.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	55.3%	36.5%	39.4%	—	73.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	68.4%	53.2%	71.2%	—	64.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	56.6%	65.5%	62.3%	63.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	59.6%	70.9%	—	75.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	76.3%	44.5%	—	75.6%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	85.2%	67.4%	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	67.0%	90.6%	69.6%	—	80.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	78.1%	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	82.4%	69.7%	93.9%	67.0%	—	78.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	83.1%	95.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	85.1%	95.5%	64.9%	4.0%	77.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	81.7%	93.3%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	81.0%	94.9%	74.9%	3.8%	76.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	84.0%	93.0%	68.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	79.2%	94.5%	72.4%	77.3%	81.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	76.2%	97.0%	65.1%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	78.0%	96.3%	59.3%	74.9%	83.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	83.6%	95.0%	63.7%	—	85.3%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	91.6%	97.3%	66.9%	82.8%	89.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	89.5%	96.3%	80.8%	—	86.4%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	86.6%	96.3%	69.7%	78.6%	82.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	91.4%	96.6%	77.2%	—	90.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	67.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	66.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	62.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	62.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	61.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261006-TMAX-GE59
Opened Sep 30 · 15:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 59°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗