WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPIT / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 03 · 14:09 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
99%
AIFS
94%
EPS
81%
HRES
76%
ICON
63%
Consensus
91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 80.8¢Risks 80.85u
VS
ICONNO 19.1¢Risks 19.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.15u · ICON −19.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-03T03:32:54+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00AIFS Single: 94.1% · 2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.4% · 2026-10-03T03:32:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.4% · 2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.4% · 2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.4% · 2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.4% · 2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.4% · 2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.4% · 2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.4% · 2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.4% · 2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.4% · 2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.8% · 2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-03T03:32:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.6% · 2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:00IFS HRES: 74.5% · 2026-10-03T03:32:54+00:00IFS HRES: 74.5% · 2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00IFS HRES: 74.5% · 2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00IFS HRES: 74.5% · 2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00IFS HRES: 74.5% · 2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00IFS HRES: 74.5% · 2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00IFS HRES: 76.2% · 2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00IFS HRES: 76.2% · 2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00IFS HRES: 76.2% · 2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00IFS HRES: 76.2% · 2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00IFS HRES: 76.2% · 2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00IFS HRES: 76.2% · 2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00IFS HRES: 76.2% · 2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00IFS HRES: 76.2% · 2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00IFS HRES: 76.2% · 2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:00ICON: 67.9% · 2026-10-03T03:32:54+00:00ICON: 67.9% · 2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:00ICON: 67.9% · 2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:00ICON: 67.9% · 2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:00ICON: 67.9% · 2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00ICON: 67.9% · 2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:00ICON: 63.1% · 2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:00ICON: 63.1% · 2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:00ICON: 63.1% · 2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:00ICON: 63.1% · 2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:00ICON: 63.1% · 2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:00ICON: 63.1% · 2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:00ICON: 63.1% · 2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:00ICON: 63.1% · 2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:00ICON: 63.1% · 2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:0010-03 03:3210-03 08:5010-03 14:09
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-03T03:32:54+00:0093.3%81.4%98.7%74.5%67.9%
2026-10-03T04:18:35+00:0093.3%81.4%98.7%74.5%67.9%
2026-10-03T05:03:40+00:0093.3%81.4%98.6%74.5%67.9%
2026-10-03T05:48:48+00:0093.3%81.4%98.6%74.5%67.9%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:0093.3%81.4%98.6%74.5%67.9%
2026-10-03T07:18:58+00:0093.3%81.4%98.6%74.5%67.9%
2026-10-03T08:04:09+00:0092.0%81.4%98.6%76.2%63.1%
2026-10-03T08:50:20+00:0092.0%81.4%98.6%76.2%63.1%
2026-10-03T09:35:24+00:0092.0%81.4%98.6%76.2%63.1%
2026-10-03T10:20:29+00:0092.0%81.4%98.6%76.2%63.1%
2026-10-03T11:05:37+00:0092.0%80.8%98.6%76.2%63.1%
2026-10-03T11:51:00+00:0092.0%80.8%98.6%76.2%63.1%
2026-10-03T12:36:04+00:0092.0%80.8%98.6%76.2%63.1%
2026-10-03T13:21:09+00:0092.0%80.8%98.6%76.2%63.1%
2026-10-03T14:09:33+00:0094.1%80.8%98.6%76.2%63.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 299%66.8°F3.3°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
National Blend94%63.0°F2.2°F2026-10-03 06:00Pending
AIFS Single94%66.3°F4.3°F2026-10-03 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble81%61.8°F2.6°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
IFS HRES76%62.7°F4.5°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
ICON63%60.8°F3.9°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%60.0°F3.9°F2026-10-03 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261006-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 03 · 03:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗