KPIT / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 03 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

94%

81%

76%

63%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.8¢Risks 80.85u

ICONNO 19.1¢Risks 19.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.15u · ICON −19.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	4.4%	—	—	78.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	92.1%	—	—	81.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	5.4%	—	—	73.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	37.2%	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	23.3%	53.4%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	6.0%	—	8.5%	71.4%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	55.8%	42.0%	44.2%	—	59.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	47.7%	29.6%	32.3%	—	66.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	61.0%	45.2%	64.1%	—	57.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	48.3%	57.5%	54.2%	55.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	50.9%	62.9%	—	67.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	68.6%	35.6%	—	67.8%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	58.5%	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	57.7%	85.8%	60.6%	—	72.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	70.1%	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	60.2%	90.1%	57.2%	—	70.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	75.5%	91.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	77.8%	92.3%	54.4%	2.1%	68.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	73.3%	88.8%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	72.0%	91.0%	64.8%	1.9%	66.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	75.6%	88.0%	57.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	69.2%	90.0%	61.1%	66.9%	72.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	65.1%	94.0%	52.6%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	66.9%	92.6%	46.0%	63.2%	73.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	77.9%	73.5%	90.2%	50.0%	—	75.8%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	84.6%	94.1%	52.9%	72.0%	80.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	80.8%	92.0%	68.9%	—	76.4%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	76.2%	91.7%	54.7%	65.4%	71.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	83.0%	92.1%	63.0%	—	80.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	66.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	94%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	66.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	61.8°F	2.6°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	62.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	60.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261006-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 03 · 03:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗