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KPIT / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 01 · 10:43 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
98%
WN2
88%
HRES
86%
EPS
59%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 78.3¢Risks 78.30u
VS
EPSNO 21.7¢Risks 21.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.70u · EPS −21.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-01T07:42:33+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-01T07:42:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.7% · 2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-01T07:42:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-10-01T07:42:33+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:0010-01 07:4210-01 09:1310-01 10:43
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-01T07:42:33+00:0097.9%58.7%87.5%86.2%
2026-10-01T08:28:44+00:0097.9%58.7%87.5%86.2%
2026-10-01T09:13:49+00:0097.9%58.7%87.5%86.2%
2026-10-01T09:58:53+00:0097.9%58.7%87.5%86.2%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:0097.9%58.7%87.5%86.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single98%78.8°F5.5°F2026-10-01 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 288%73.5°F5.2°F2026-09-30 18:00Pending
IFS HRES86%74.4°F6.3°F2026-10-01 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%68.4°F4.1°F2026-09-30 00:00Pending
National Blend56%68.4°F5.5°F2026-10-01 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261008-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗