KPIT / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 01 · 10:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

88%

86%

59%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.3¢Risks 78.30u

EPSNO 21.7¢Risks 21.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.70u · EPS −21.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	1.8%	—	—	57.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	54.8%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	62.4%	—	—	59.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	41.0%	—	—	73.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	5.9%	1.0%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	72.0%	5.6%	71.4%	80.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	83.9%	46.4%	—	75.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	89.3%	62.0%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	83.2%	89.6%	38.2%	—	64.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	20.7%	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	54.2%	90.3%	21.9%	—	55.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	44.0%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	89.9%	33.0%	78.6%	45.6%	—	71.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	52.7%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	65.3%	66.1%	64.4%	—	66.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	94.9%	41.5%	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	65.2%	68.7%	84.7%	—	73.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	62.8%	81.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	54.1%	77.3%	86.1%	—	74.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	53.2%	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	79.4%	72.7%	66.9%	55.5%	77.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	62.2%	87.1%	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	68.0%	83.2%	57.0%	—	60.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	69.6%	85.5%	53.6%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	69.2%	81.8%	38.9%	26.6%	66.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	44.9%	55.1%	29.1%	—	61.5%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	54.0%	58.0%	35.6%	39.4%	55.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	65.0%	55.6%	48.6%	—	58.3%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	77.8%	76.6%	47.1%	52.9%	61.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	81.9%	71.5%	59.0%	—	71.5%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	82.9%	69.7%	62.4%	59.4%	73.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	88.5%	73.3%	70.5%	—	85.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	78.8°F	5.5°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	73.5°F	5.2°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	74.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	68.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261008-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗