KPIT / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 09 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

85%

58%

47%

37%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.1¢Risks 65.15u

EPSNO 34.9¢Risks 34.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.85u · EPS −34.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T10:52:57+00:00	95.1%	69.1%	82.2%	93.9%	—
2026-10-02T11:39:17+00:00	95.1%	69.1%	82.2%	93.9%	—
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	95.1%	69.1%	82.2%	93.9%	—
2026-10-02T13:10:25+00:00	95.1%	69.1%	82.2%	93.9%	—
2026-10-03T14:54:51+00:00	97.4%	61.8%	95.0%	72.8%	85.8%
2026-10-03T15:40:18+00:00	97.4%	61.8%	95.0%	72.8%	85.8%
2026-10-03T16:25:23+00:00	97.4%	61.8%	95.0%	72.8%	85.8%
2026-10-03T17:10:29+00:00	97.4%	61.8%	96.4%	72.8%	85.8%
2026-10-03T17:55:37+00:00	97.4%	61.8%	96.4%	72.8%	85.8%
2026-10-03T18:40:44+00:00	97.4%	61.8%	96.4%	72.8%	85.8%
2026-10-03T19:25:50+00:00	97.8%	61.8%	96.4%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-03T20:11:04+00:00	97.8%	61.8%	96.4%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-03T20:56:15+00:00	97.8%	61.8%	96.4%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-03T21:41:24+00:00	97.8%	61.8%	96.4%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-03T22:26:30+00:00	97.8%	61.8%	96.4%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-03T23:11:36+00:00	97.7%	61.9%	93.2%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-03T23:56:41+00:00	97.7%	61.9%	93.2%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-04T00:41:47+00:00	97.7%	61.9%	93.2%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-04T01:26:58+00:00	87.1%	61.9%	93.2%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-04T02:12:16+00:00	87.1%	61.9%	93.2%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-04T02:57:26+00:00	87.1%	61.9%	93.2%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-04T03:42:44+00:00	87.1%	61.9%	93.2%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-04T04:28:36+00:00	87.1%	61.9%	93.2%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-04T05:13:56+00:00	87.1%	61.9%	91.9%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-04T05:59:03+00:00	87.1%	61.9%	91.9%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-04T06:44:09+00:00	87.1%	61.9%	91.9%	88.7%	77.9%
2026-10-04T07:29:20+00:00	84.1%	61.9%	91.9%	86.2%	37.2%
2026-10-04T08:15:38+00:00	84.1%	61.9%	91.9%	86.2%	37.2%
2026-10-04T09:00:51+00:00	84.1%	61.9%	91.9%	86.2%	37.2%
2026-10-04T09:45:57+00:00	84.1%	61.9%	91.9%	86.2%	37.2%
2026-10-04T10:31:03+00:00	84.1%	61.9%	91.9%	86.2%	37.2%
2026-10-04T11:16:13+00:00	84.1%	63.1%	89.0%	86.2%	37.2%
2026-10-04T12:01:35+00:00	84.1%	63.1%	89.0%	86.2%	37.2%
2026-10-04T12:46:41+00:00	84.1%	63.1%	89.0%	86.2%	37.2%
2026-10-04T13:32:22+00:00	84.1%	63.1%	89.0%	86.2%	37.2%
2026-10-04T14:21:26+00:00	84.0%	63.1%	88.7%	86.1%	37.2%
2026-10-04T15:06:39+00:00	84.0%	61.1%	88.7%	86.1%	37.2%
2026-10-04T15:52:28+00:00	84.0%	61.1%	88.7%	86.1%	37.2%
2026-10-04T16:37:43+00:00	84.0%	61.1%	88.7%	86.1%	37.2%
2026-10-04T17:22:56+00:00	84.0%	61.1%	82.0%	86.1%	37.2%
2026-10-04T18:08:19+00:00	84.0%	61.1%	82.0%	86.1%	37.2%
2026-10-04T18:53:27+00:00	84.0%	61.1%	82.0%	86.1%	37.2%
2026-10-04T19:38:35+00:00	79.8%	61.1%	82.0%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-04T20:23:44+00:00	79.8%	61.1%	82.0%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-04T21:08:54+00:00	79.8%	61.1%	82.0%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-04T21:54:00+00:00	79.8%	61.1%	82.0%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-04T22:39:07+00:00	79.8%	61.1%	82.0%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-04T23:24:15+00:00	79.8%	61.1%	87.8%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-05T00:09:25+00:00	79.8%	61.1%	87.8%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-05T00:54:36+00:00	79.8%	61.1%	87.8%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-05T01:39:43+00:00	72.9%	61.1%	87.8%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-05T02:24:51+00:00	72.9%	61.1%	87.8%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-05T03:09:58+00:00	72.9%	61.1%	87.8%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-05T03:55:11+00:00	72.9%	61.1%	87.8%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-05T04:41:06+00:00	72.9%	61.1%	87.8%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-05T05:26:16+00:00	72.9%	61.1%	87.8%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-05T06:11:27+00:00	72.9%	61.1%	87.8%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-05T06:56:32+00:00	72.9%	61.1%	87.8%	57.5%	47.3%
2026-10-05T07:41:45+00:00	83.0%	61.1%	87.8%	43.6%	69.4%
2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00	83.0%	61.1%	87.8%	43.6%	69.4%
2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00	83.0%	61.1%	87.8%	43.6%	69.4%
2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00	83.0%	61.1%	87.8%	43.6%	69.4%
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00	83.0%	61.1%	87.8%	43.6%	69.4%
2026-10-05T11:28:48+00:00	83.0%	46.8%	91.2%	43.6%	69.4%
2026-10-05T12:14:15+00:00	83.0%	46.8%	91.2%	43.6%	69.4%
2026-10-05T12:59:26+00:00	83.0%	46.8%	91.2%	43.6%	69.4%
2026-10-05T13:44:43+00:00	68.3%	46.8%	91.2%	43.6%	69.4%
2026-10-05T14:34:08+00:00	68.3%	46.8%	91.1%	43.6%	70.1%
2026-10-05T15:19:21+00:00	68.3%	46.0%	91.1%	43.6%	70.1%
2026-10-05T16:04:35+00:00	68.3%	46.0%	91.1%	43.6%	70.1%
2026-10-05T16:50:27+00:00	68.3%	46.0%	91.1%	43.6%	70.1%
2026-10-05T17:35:34+00:00	68.3%	46.0%	84.1%	43.6%	70.1%
2026-10-05T18:20:41+00:00	68.3%	46.0%	84.1%	43.6%	70.1%
2026-10-05T19:05:48+00:00	68.3%	46.0%	84.1%	43.6%	70.1%
2026-10-05T19:50:54+00:00	69.1%	46.0%	84.1%	43.6%	31.3%
2026-10-05T20:36:04+00:00	69.1%	46.0%	84.1%	43.6%	31.3%
2026-10-05T21:21:20+00:00	69.1%	46.0%	84.1%	43.6%	31.3%
2026-10-05T22:06:29+00:00	69.1%	46.0%	84.1%	43.6%	31.3%
2026-10-05T22:51:35+00:00	69.1%	46.0%	84.1%	43.6%	31.3%
2026-10-05T23:36:41+00:00	69.1%	46.0%	79.1%	43.6%	31.3%
2026-10-06T00:21:49+00:00	69.1%	46.0%	79.1%	43.6%	31.3%
2026-10-06T01:07:02+00:00	69.1%	46.0%	79.1%	43.6%	31.3%
2026-10-06T01:52:08+00:00	69.1%	46.0%	79.1%	43.6%	31.3%
2026-10-06T02:37:18+00:00	69.1%	46.0%	79.1%	43.6%	31.3%
2026-10-06T03:22:26+00:00	69.1%	46.0%	79.1%	43.6%	31.3%
2026-10-08T03:06:21+00:00	79.5%	29.4%	87.1%	50.0%	24.9%
2026-10-08T03:52:31+00:00	79.5%	29.4%	87.1%	50.0%	24.9%
2026-10-08T04:37:38+00:00	79.5%	29.4%	87.1%	50.0%	24.9%
2026-10-08T05:22:44+00:00	79.5%	29.4%	92.7%	50.0%	24.9%
2026-10-08T06:07:55+00:00	79.5%	29.4%	92.7%	50.0%	24.9%
2026-10-08T06:53:02+00:00	79.5%	29.4%	92.7%	50.0%	24.9%
2026-10-08T07:38:12+00:00	82.3%	29.4%	92.7%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T08:24:43+00:00	82.3%	29.4%	92.7%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T09:09:49+00:00	82.3%	29.4%	92.7%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T09:54:56+00:00	82.3%	29.4%	92.7%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T10:40:02+00:00	82.3%	29.4%	92.7%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T11:25:16+00:00	82.3%	36.2%	94.6%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T12:10:40+00:00	82.3%	36.2%	94.6%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T12:55:49+00:00	82.3%	36.2%	94.6%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T13:40:56+00:00	81.6%	36.2%	94.6%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T14:30:25+00:00	81.6%	36.2%	94.6%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T15:15:50+00:00	81.6%	37.4%	94.6%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T16:01:32+00:00	81.6%	37.4%	94.6%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T16:46:38+00:00	81.6%	37.4%	94.6%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T17:31:44+00:00	81.6%	37.4%	94.6%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:16:49+00:00	81.6%	37.4%	94.6%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T19:01:54+00:00	81.6%	37.4%	94.6%	62.6%	41.0%
2026-10-08T19:46:59+00:00	83.5%	37.4%	94.6%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-08T20:32:12+00:00	83.5%	37.4%	94.6%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-08T21:17:20+00:00	83.5%	37.4%	94.6%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-08T22:02:30+00:00	83.5%	37.4%	94.6%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-08T22:47:36+00:00	83.5%	37.4%	94.6%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-08T23:32:43+00:00	83.5%	37.4%	91.4%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-09T00:17:55+00:00	83.5%	37.4%	91.4%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-09T01:03:07+00:00	83.5%	37.4%	91.4%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-09T01:48:12+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	91.4%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-09T02:33:33+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	91.4%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-09T03:18:49+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	91.4%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-09T04:05:04+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	91.4%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-09T04:50:12+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	91.4%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-09T05:35:18+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	92.9%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-09T06:20:26+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	92.9%	58.5%	46.6%
2026-10-09T07:05:32+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	92.9%	58.5%	46.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	72.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	72.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
National Blend	80%	70.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	69.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	47%	68.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	67.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261009-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 02 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗