KPIT / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 09 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

85%

58%

47%

37%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.1¢Risks 65.15u

EPSNO 34.9¢Risks 34.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.85u · EPS −34.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	5.4%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	74.1%	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	47.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	51.9%	—	81.5%	63.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	62.6%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	25.7%	4.5%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	78.0%	62.3%	27.2%	—	65.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	65.6%	67.0%	16.0%	—	64.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	20.1%	46.8%	11.1%	—	57.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	0.5%	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	28.6%	33.8%	32.2%	—	55.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	18.4%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	58.7%	31.4%	50.0%	—	34.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	22.9%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	19.0%	28.9%	11.0%	—	40.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	24.6%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	21.8%	27.9%	3.5%	0.4%	34.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	14.6%	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	21.2%	—	12.8%	—	32.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	24.5%	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	30.1%	51.1%	38.2%	45.6%	35.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	24.9%	53.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	27.0%	40.8%	19.1%	47.7%	36.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	47.6%	45.2%	17.5%	—	44.0%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	55.0%	51.2%	22.7%	32.0%	50.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	60.2%	42.3%	15.0%	—	47.4%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	61.9%	48.7%	33.1%	38.1%	44.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	59.7%	41.7%	26.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	68.2%	48.5%	40.0%	55.8%	58.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	63.3%	60.5%	39.5%	—	54.5%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	60.9%	62.4%	36.1%	51.6%	51.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	61.4%	71.9%	48.4%	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	72.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	72.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
National Blend	80%	70.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	69.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	47%	68.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	67.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261009-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 02 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗