KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

92%

90%

89%

79%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 89.4¢Risks 89.40u

ICONNO 10.6¢Risks 10.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +10.60u · ICON −10.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T15:06:39+00:00	59.7%	69.2%	93.7%	91.8%	90.0%
2026-10-04T15:52:28+00:00	59.7%	69.2%	93.7%	91.8%	90.0%
2026-10-04T16:37:43+00:00	59.7%	69.2%	93.7%	91.8%	90.0%
2026-10-04T17:22:56+00:00	59.7%	69.2%	74.0%	91.8%	90.0%
2026-10-04T18:08:19+00:00	59.7%	69.2%	74.0%	91.8%	90.0%
2026-10-04T18:53:27+00:00	59.7%	69.2%	74.0%	91.8%	90.0%
2026-10-04T19:38:35+00:00	98.1%	69.2%	74.0%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-04T20:23:44+00:00	98.1%	69.2%	74.0%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-04T21:08:54+00:00	98.1%	69.2%	74.0%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-04T21:54:00+00:00	98.1%	69.2%	74.0%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-04T22:39:07+00:00	98.1%	69.2%	74.0%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-04T23:24:15+00:00	98.1%	69.2%	96.2%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-05T00:09:25+00:00	98.1%	69.2%	96.2%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-05T00:54:36+00:00	98.1%	69.2%	96.2%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-05T01:39:43+00:00	90.7%	69.2%	96.2%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-05T02:24:51+00:00	90.7%	69.2%	96.2%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-05T03:09:58+00:00	90.7%	69.2%	96.2%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-05T03:55:11+00:00	90.7%	69.2%	96.2%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-05T04:41:06+00:00	90.7%	69.2%	96.2%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-05T05:26:16+00:00	90.7%	69.2%	96.2%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-05T06:11:27+00:00	90.7%	69.2%	96.2%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-05T06:56:32+00:00	90.7%	69.2%	96.2%	89.0%	86.8%
2026-10-05T07:41:46+00:00	74.9%	69.2%	96.2%	89.3%	71.5%
2026-10-05T08:28:13+00:00	74.9%	69.2%	96.2%	89.3%	71.5%
2026-10-05T09:13:29+00:00	74.9%	69.2%	96.2%	89.3%	71.5%
2026-10-05T09:58:35+00:00	74.9%	69.2%	96.2%	89.3%	71.5%
2026-10-05T10:43:41+00:00	74.9%	69.2%	96.2%	89.3%	71.5%
2026-10-05T11:28:48+00:00	74.9%	64.3%	98.6%	89.3%	71.5%
2026-10-05T12:14:15+00:00	74.9%	64.3%	98.6%	89.3%	71.5%
2026-10-05T12:59:26+00:00	74.9%	64.3%	98.6%	89.3%	71.5%
2026-10-05T13:44:43+00:00	80.3%	64.3%	98.6%	89.3%	71.5%
2026-10-05T14:34:08+00:00	80.3%	64.2%	98.5%	89.3%	72.1%
2026-10-05T15:19:21+00:00	80.3%	64.3%	98.5%	89.3%	72.1%
2026-10-06T04:07:40+00:00	94.6%	63.7%	99.6%	89.3%	86.5%
2026-10-06T04:53:29+00:00	94.6%	63.7%	99.9%	89.3%	86.5%
2026-10-06T05:38:45+00:00	94.6%	63.7%	99.9%	89.3%	86.5%
2026-10-06T06:23:51+00:00	94.6%	63.7%	99.9%	89.3%	86.5%
2026-10-06T07:08:57+00:00	94.6%	63.7%	99.9%	89.3%	86.5%
2026-10-06T07:54:03+00:00	97.4%	63.7%	99.9%	89.3%	78.9%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	97.4%	63.7%	99.9%	89.3%	78.9%
2026-10-06T09:24:20+00:00	97.4%	63.7%	99.9%	89.3%	78.9%
2026-10-06T10:09:27+00:00	97.4%	63.7%	99.9%	89.3%	78.9%
2026-10-06T10:54:34+00:00	97.4%	90.4%	99.9%	89.3%	78.9%
2026-10-06T11:39:41+00:00	97.4%	90.4%	99.9%	89.3%	78.9%
2026-10-06T12:24:47+00:00	97.4%	90.4%	99.9%	89.3%	78.9%
2026-10-06T13:09:54+00:00	97.4%	90.4%	99.9%	89.3%	78.9%
2026-10-06T13:55:01+00:00	91.7%	90.3%	99.9%	89.3%	78.9%
2026-10-06T14:43:37+00:00	91.7%	90.3%	99.9%	89.3%	78.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	79.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	73.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	90%	73.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	74.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	79%	71.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
National Blend	74%	71.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 04 · 15:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗