KPIT / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

92%

90%

89%

79%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 89.4¢Risks 89.40u

ICONNO 10.6¢Risks 10.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +10.60u · ICON −10.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	13.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	4.9%	—	—	35.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	81.9%	—	92.4%	61.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	2.7%	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	36.7%	4.2%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	32.3%	93.3%	3.8%	—	65.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	84.4%	76.8%	12.8%	—	77.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	80.0%	84.9%	10.7%	—	78.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	57.9%	89.2%	58.7%	—	71.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	1.9%	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	79.9%	70.7%	54.2%	—	85.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	68.9%	51.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	69.3%	96.6%	55.2%	—	96.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	64.9%	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	63.6%	—	89.0%	—	96.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	81.7%	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	67.0%	81.0%	85.3%	0.4%	96.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	59.9%	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	73.2%	83.7%	71.5%	—	93.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	84.4%	93.2%	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	58.7%	93.0%	88.6%	—	96.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	83.9%	81.0%	0.0%	—	95.2%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	76.7%	81.7%	62.6%	45.4%	88.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	89.8%	68.5%	93.0%	63.0%	—	92.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	74.4%	87.0%	73.4%	—	93.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	89.1%	62.7%	95.7%	74.1%	—	90.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	65.7%	96.3%	55.4%	54.0%	79.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	51.4%	79.9%	63.7%	—	72.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	54.3%	85.4%	61.4%	75.5%	82.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	66.2%	79.8%	41.0%	—	51.5%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	43.7%	76.2%	37.6%	57.9%	65.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	50.0%	73.3%	58.2%	—	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	79.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	73.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	90%	73.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	74.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	79%	71.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
National Blend	74%	71.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261010-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 04 · 15:06 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗